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Pena vs Alesves

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Yaniz M.
89' Event
Barace X.

AI Match Summary

Pena in this Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Pena
15%
Draws
0%
Alesves
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Pena have won more games recently than Alesves.
  • Model gives Pena a 85% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Pena have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Pena Clean Sheet 20%
Alesves Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pena Alesves
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 22 4
Draws 10 6
Losses 6 20
Goals Scored 1.79 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 3, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Pena vs Alesves
2:0
Sep 17, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Alesves vs Pena
3:1
Jan 22, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Pena vs Alesves
1:0
Sep 23, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Alesves vs Pena
0:1
May 11, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Alesves vs Pena
4:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Yaniz M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barace X.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Alesves Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pena 85 / 100
Alesves 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pena Alesves

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pena's goal record stands at 92% scoring rate across 38 recent games.

Alesves has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Alesves lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pena VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pena

(Home)
26 Sept
Barcelona B
4 : 0
Pena
19 Sept
Pena
2 : 1
Espanyol B
12 Sept
CE Manresa
2 : 0
Pena
06 Sept
Pena
1 : 1
Utebo FC
25 Aug
Erriberri
0 : 3
Pena
Page 1 of 8

Alesves

(Away)
11 May
Beti Kozkor
2 : 1
Alesves
04 May
Alesves
1 : 3
Lerines
01 May
Cirbonero
4 : 1
Alesves
26 Apr
Alesves
0 : 1
Cortes
21 Apr
CD Cantolagua
1 : 0
Alesves
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Subiza 34 20 8 6 68:29 68
2 Cortes 34 17 12 5 40:23 63
3 CD Ardoi 34 18 8 8 49:23 62
4 Pena 34 14 15 5 53:39 57
5 Huarte 34 16 6 12 51:47 54
6 CD Cantolagua 34 15 9 10 55:45 54
7 CD Beti Onak 34 15 5 14 47:50 50
8 Cirbonero 34 12 8 14 46:49 44
9 Txantrea 34 11 9 14 34:36 42
10 Pamplona 34 10 12 12 45:45 42
11 Beti Kozkor 34 11 9 14 35:43 42
12 Bidezarra 34 9 15 10 42:38 42
13 Burlades 34 11 8 15 35:47 41
14 Oberena 34 11 7 16 43:49 40
15 Ezcabarte 34 10 10 14 42:51 40
16 Lagunak 34 8 10 16 35:52 34
17 Lerines 34 9 7 18 34:59 34
18 Alesves 34 7 6 21 34:63 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2023/2024 (Play Offs)