Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril

Penafiel

1 - 1

SC Farense

Our Tip

Match Events

25'

Oliveira A.

34'

Santos Poloni D. T.

45'

Alcaina R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 game between Penafiel and SC Farense finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Penafiel

44%

Draws

20%

SC Farense

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Penafiel come out ahead of SC Farense on wins alone.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%

Penafiel Clean Sheet 17%

SC Farense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penafiel	SC Farense
Matches Played	29	33
Wins	11	10
Draws	6	10
Losses	12	13
Goals Scored	1.88	1
Goals Conceded	1.75	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Liga Portugal 2

Penafiel vs SC Farense

Possession: 50% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

1:1

Oct 26, 2025 Liga Portugal 2

SC Farense vs Penafiel

Possession: 54% - 47% Cards: 3 - 2

0:0

Apr 22, 2023 Liga Portugal 2

SC Farense vs Penafiel

Possession: 42% - 43% Cards: 3 - 4

2:1

Nov 5, 2022 Liga Portugal 2

Penafiel vs SC Farense

Possession: 57% - 49% Cards: 0 - 4

0:2

Mar 19, 2022 Liga Portugal 2

Penafiel vs SC Farense

Possession: 59% - 51% Cards: 4 - 3

1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penafiel Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira B.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

SC Farense Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penafiel 36 / 100

SC Farense 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penafiel SC Farense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAR Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Penafiel scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

SC Farense let in goals in 58% of their last 33 matches.

Penafiel went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Penafiel VS SC Farense

1.88 Goals Scored 1

1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63

75% Over 1.5 50%

75% Over 2.5 25%

38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maritimo	34	20	6	8	50:29	66
2	Academico Viseu	34	17	8	9	58:33	59
3	Torreense	34	18	5	11	46:33	59
4	Vizela	34	14	9	11	39:40	51
5	FC Porto B	34	15	6	13	41:42	51
6	Leiria	34	13	11	10	52:46	50
7	Leixoes	34	15	5	14	46:55	50
8	Feirense	34	12	10	12	37:40	46
9	Chaves	34	13	6	15	42:40	45
10	Benfica B	34	11	11	12	43:44	44
11	FC Felgueiras	34	11	11	12	34:38	44
12	Lusitania FC	34	11	10	13	44:52	43
13	Sporting CP B	34	13	3	18	41:34	42
14	Penafiel	34	11	8	15	37:39	41
15	Portimonense	34	11	7	16	39:49	40
16	SC Farense	34	10	10	14	31:37	40
17	Pacos Ferreira	34	9	12	13	34:48	39
18	Oliveirense	34	8	10	16	34:49	34