Sport Picks

Portugal

Taça de Portugal 2023/2024 Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel

Penafiel

Sat, Nov 25, 2023

3 - 2

05:00 PM

Vitoria Setubal

Our Tip

Match Events

Teixeira L.

Own Goal

22'

Figueiredo L.

37'

Silva A.

Assist: Pereira R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Penafiel in this Taça de Portugal 2023/2024 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%

Penafiel

20%

Draws

28%

Vitoria Setubal

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Penafiel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence

Penafiel haven't matched Vitoria Setubal's recent run of results.
Model gives Penafiel a 52% chance of winning this.
Vitoria Setubal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Penafiel, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 71.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%

Penafiel Clean Sheet 68%

Vitoria Setubal Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penafiel	Vitoria Setubal
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	12	15
Draws	7	6
Losses	12	9
Goals Scored	1.32	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.35	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.02	1.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 25, 2023 Taça de Portugal

Penafiel vs Vitoria Setubal

3:2

Nov 25, 2018 Taça de Portugal

Penafiel vs Vitoria Setubal

1:4

Feb 21, 2015 Liga Portugal

Vitoria Setubal vs Penafiel

0:1

Sep 20, 2014 Liga Portugal

Penafiel vs Vitoria Setubal

2:0

Nov 10, 2010 League Cup

Vitoria Setubal vs Penafiel

3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penafiel Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Barbosa Gabriel

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.78

Avg xA / game 0.51

Vitoria Setubal Compare

Avg xG / game 1.53

Avg xA / game 0.93

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penafiel 95 / 100

Vitoria Setubal 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penafiel Vitoria Setubal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penafiel Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Penafiel has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Penafiel scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Vitoria Setubal let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Penafiel VS Vitoria Setubal

0.25 Goals Scored 1.6

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.8

63% Over 1.5 80%

25% Over 2.5 60%

13% Over 3.5 60%

Recent Form & Match History

Penafiel

(Home)

25 Sept

Penafiel

2 : 2

Dep. A Coruna

19 Sept

Oliveirense

1 : 2

Penafiel

12 Sept

FC Felgueiras

1 : 2

Penafiel

05 Sept

Penafiel

4 : 1

Academica

30 Aug

FC Porto B

0 : 3

Penafiel

Page 1 of 7

Vitoria Setubal

(Away)

20 Sept

Alcains

0 : 2

Vitoria Setubal

13 Sept

Vitoria Setubal

2 : 2

Juv. Evora

06 Sept

Lajense

0 : 1

Vitoria Setubal

23 Aug

Vitoria Setubal

1 : 3

Amora

16 Aug

Serpa

4 : 2

Vitoria Setubal

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Moncarapachense -

TBD -

CU Micaelense 1

GD Alcochetense 0

TBD -

Vitoria Guimaraes -

Ponte -

TBD -

Vilaverdense FC -

TBD -

SC Farense -

Valadares Gaia FC 4

Torre De Moncorvo 0

TBD -

Penafiel -

SC Salgueiros 2

FC Foz 0

TBD -

Santa Maria FC -

Sao Joao de Ver -

TBD -

Leixoes -

Anadia 2

Sanjoanense 3

TBD -

Vitoria Setubal -

Tomar -

TBD -

Pero Pinheiro 2

Caldas SC 1

Padernense 1

Serpa 2

TBD -

CD Gouveia -

Atletico SC 0

CDR Quarteirense 2

TBD -

CF Os Belenenses -

TBD -

Gil Vicente -

Uniao Lamas 2

Paredes 3

Florgrade 3

Beira Mar 1

TBD -

Moreirense -

Sertanense -

TBD -

Amarante FC -

Academica 3

Uniao de Coimbra 0

Fornos de Algodres 0

Oliveira Hospital 5

O Elvas CAD -

TBD -

Lanheses -

ACDR Lamelas -

TBD -

Tirsense -

SC Vila Real 0

Ribeirao 2

TBD -

Santa Clara -

Vitoria Sernache -

TBD -

Aliados Lordelo 1

SC Vianense 3

CD Portosantense 1

Gondomar 0

TBD -

Nacional -

FC Barreirense -

TBD -

SC Mirandela -

CD Rabo Peixe -

TBD -

Oliveira do Douro -

TBD -

Casa Pia -

Juv. Evora 3

Portel 0

Sintrense 2

Operario 0

TBD -

Estoril -

Gafetense -

TBD -

Mafra -

Brito -

TBD -

Feirense -

Vilar de Perdizes -

TBD -

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira -

TBD -

FC Porto -

GD Peniche 2

Marinhense 1

Mondinense 0

CDC Montalegre 2

Trofense -

TBD -

Pevidem -

Canelas 2010 -

TBD -

FC Flamengos 0

GD Fontinhas 2

TBD -

Chaves -

Guadalupe 0

Fabril do Barreiro 1

TBD -

Maritimo -

Mortagua FC -

TBD -

Amora 8

Vitoria FC Pico 0

Lusitania FC 10

Regua 0

TBD -

Academico Viseu -

Pedrogao Sao Pedro -

TBD -

Leiria -

Atletico Arcos -

TBD -

Malveira -

Alqueidao 3

CD Torres Novas 2

TBD -

AD Marco 09 -

Rebordelo 1

Os Sandinenses 3

Real SC 1

Olivais e Moscavide 2

TBD -

Sporting CP -

Dumiense -

TBD -

Santarem 6

Proenca-A-Nova 0

Louletano 1

Imortal 0

TBD -

AFS -

Oriental -

TBD -

Torreense -

TBD -

Rio Ave -

SC Vilanovense 0

SC Pombal 2

TBD -

Tondela -

1º Dezembro -

TBD -

Pacos Ferreira -

Atletico CP -

TBD -

Alverca 13

CF Os Gavionenses 0

TBD -

Vizela -

Castrense 1

Penedo Gordo 0

TBD -

Vila Mea -

TBD -

Estrela da Amadora -

AD Fafe 1

FC Felgueiras 2

AD Limianos 3

Varzim 2

TBD -

Arouca -

Amiense 0

SB Castelo Branco 7

TBD -

Oliveirense -

TBD -

Boavista -

SC Lusitania -

TBD -

Os Marialvas -

TBD -

Benfica -

Luzense -

TBD -

Camacha -

TBD -

Famalicao -

Lusitano GC 2

Industria 0

TBD -

Covilha -

TBD -

Portimonense -

Lusitano FCV 0

Tocha 2

Rebordosa 2

Lobao 1

TBD -

Braga -

1/64-finals

Moncarapachense 6

CU Micaelense 2

TBD -

Vitoria Guimaraes -

Ponte 0

Vilaverdense FC 5

TBD -

SC Farense -

Valadares Gaia FC 1

Penafiel 2

SC Salgueiros 0

Santa Maria FC 1

Sao Joao de Ver 0

Leixoes 1

Sanjoanense 0

Vitoria Setubal 1

Tomar 1

Pero Pinheiro 2

Serpa 2

CD Gouveia 1

CDR Quarteirense 0

CF Os Belenenses 1

TBD -

Gil Vicente -

Paredes 5

Florgrade 1

TBD -

Moreirense -

Sertanense 0

Amarante FC 2

Academica 3

Oliveira Hospital 2

O Elvas CAD 1

Lanheses 0

ACDR Lamelas 1

Tirsense 3

Ribeirao 0

Santa Clara 3

Vitoria Sernache 0

SC Vianense 3

CD Portosantense 2

Nacional 4

FC Barreirense 0

SC Mirandela 3

CD Rabo Peixe 3

Oliveira do Douro 2

TBD -

Casa Pia -

Juv. Evora 1

Sintrense 2

TBD -

Estoril -

Gafetense 0

Mafra 5

Brito 0

Feirense 2

Vilar de Perdizes 5

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 1

TBD -

FC Porto -

GD Peniche 2

CDC Montalegre 3

Trofense 0

Pevidem 1

Canelas 2010 5

GD Fontinhas 0

TBD -

Chaves -

Fabril do Barreiro 1

Maritimo 3

Mortagua FC 2

Amora 1

Lusitania FC 1

Academico Viseu 2

Pedrogao Sao Pedro 0

Leiria 12

Atletico Arcos 2

Malveira 3

Alqueidao 1

AD Marco 09 3

Os Sandinenses 1

Olivais e Moscavide 3

TBD -

Sporting CP -

Dumiense 4

Santarem 3

Louletano 0

AFS 1

Oriental 0

Torreense 1

TBD -

Rio Ave -

SC Pombal 0

Tondela 5

1º Dezembro 1

Pacos Ferreira 0

Atletico CP 1

Alverca 0

TBD -

Vizela -

Castrense 0

Vila Mea 3

TBD -

Estrela da Amadora -

FC Felgueiras 4

AD Limianos 0

TBD -

Arouca -

SB Castelo Branco 1

Oliveirense 2

TBD -

Boavista -

SC Lusitania 1

Os Marialvas 0

TBD -

Benfica -

Luzense 0

Camacha 3

TBD -

Famalicao -

Lusitano GC 0

Covilha 1

TBD -

Portimonense -

Tocha 2

Rebordosa 4

TBD -

Braga -

1/32-finals

Moncarapachense 1

Vitoria Guimaraes 3

Vilaverdense FC 3

SC Farense 2

Penafiel 3

Santa Maria FC 0

Leixoes 1

Vitoria Setubal 2

Pero Pinheiro 0

Serpa 1

CF Os Belenenses 1

Gil Vicente 2

Paredes 2

Moreirense 1

Amarante FC 1

Academica 0

O Elvas CAD 2

Tirsense 1

Santa Clara 2

SC Vianense 0

Nacional 6

SC Mirandela 1

CD Rabo Peixe 0

Casa Pia 2

Sintrense 0

Estoril 5

Mafra 3

Feirense 1

Vilar de Perdizes 0

FC Porto 2

CDC Montalegre 2

Pevidem 1

Canelas 2010 1

Chaves 0

Maritimo 4

Mortagua FC 1

Academico Viseu 1

Leiria 3

Malveira 2

AD Marco 09 1

Olivais e Moscavide 1

Sporting CP 3

Dumiense 1

AFS 0

Torreense 2

Rio Ave 1

Tondela 2

1º Dezembro 1

Atletico CP 0

Vizela 1

Vila Mea 0

Estrela da Amadora 1

FC Felgueiras 1

Arouca 3

Oliveirense 1

Boavista 3

SC Lusitania 1

Benfica 4

Camacha 0

Famalicao 5

Covilha 1

Portimonense 4

Rebordosa 0

Braga 2

1/16-finals

Vitoria Guimaraes 4

Vilaverdense FC 1

Penafiel 3

Vitoria Setubal 2

Serpa 0

Gil Vicente 1

Paredes 0

Amarante FC 2

O Elvas CAD 1

Santa Clara 2

Nacional 1

Casa Pia 0

Estoril 2

Mafra 1

FC Porto 4

CDC Montalegre 0

Canelas 2010 1

Maritimo 3

Leiria 5

Malveira 0

Sporting CP 8

Dumiense 0

Torreense 1

Tondela 2

Vizela 2

Estrela da Amadora 1

Arouca 3

Boavista 2

Benfica 2

Famalicao 0

Portimonense 1

Braga 4

1/8-finals

Vitoria Guimaraes 1

Penafiel 0

Gil Vicente 3

Amarante FC 1

Santa Clara 2

Nacional 1

Estoril 0

FC Porto 4

Maritimo 0

Leiria 3

Sporting CP 4

Tondela 0

Vizela 1

Arouca 0

Benfica 3

Braga 2

Quarter-finals

Vitoria Guimaraes 3

Gil Vicente 1

Santa Clara 1

FC Porto 2

Leiria 0

Sporting CP 3

Vizela 1

Benfica 2

Semi-finals

Vitoria Guimaraes 1

FC Porto 4

Sporting CP 4

Benfica 3

Final

FC Porto 2

Sporting CP 1

Penafiel vs Vitoria Setubal

Portugal

Penafiel

Vitoria Setubal

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Penafiel Compare

Vitoria Setubal Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Penafiel

Vitoria Setubal

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Install Sokapicks PWA