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Penafiel vs Vizela

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Santos A. In: Negrao G.
Out: Santos A.
57' Event
Sampaio J.
Assist: Lacava M.
64'
Sub
Rodrigues D. In: Sery J.
Out: Rodrigues D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 game between Penafiel and Vizela finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vizela.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Penafiel
20%
Draws
40%
Vizela
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Vizela carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Penafiel Clean Sheet 68%
Vizela Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penafiel Vizela
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 11
Draws 6 4
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.03 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Vizela
0:1
Nov 2, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Vizela vs Penafiel
1:3
Jan 26, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Vizela
1:1
Aug 18, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Vizela vs Penafiel
1:2
Oct 15, 2022 Taça de Portugal
Penafiel vs Vizela
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penafiel Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Vizela Compare

Top Goalscorer Sampaio J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penafiel 41 / 100
Vizela 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penafiel Vizela

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penafiel Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Vizela let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Penafiel has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Penafiel found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Penafiel VS Vizela
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Penafiel

(Home)
30 Aug
FC Porto B
0 : 3
Penafiel
23 Aug
Penafiel
2 : 0
Sporting CP B
15 Aug
Torreense
2 : 2
Penafiel
08 Aug
Penafiel
0 : 1
Portimonense
01 Aug
Penafiel
0 : 2
Braga B
Page 1 of 6

Vizela

(Away)
29 Aug
Torreense
0 : 3
Vizela
22 Aug
Vizela
0 : 0
Amarante FC
16 Aug
Portimonense
2 : 0
Vizela
09 Aug
Vizela
1 : 0
Leiria
01 Aug
Vizela
0 : 1
Celta Vigo B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maritimo 34 20 6 8 50:29 66
2 Academico Viseu 34 17 8 9 58:33 59
3 Torreense 34 18 5 11 46:33 59
4 Vizela 34 14 9 11 39:40 51
5 FC Porto B 34 15 6 13 41:42 51
6 Leiria 34 13 11 10 52:46 50
7 Leixoes 34 15 5 14 46:55 50
8 Feirense 34 12 10 12 37:40 46
9 Chaves 34 13 6 15 42:40 45
10 Benfica B 34 11 11 12 43:44 44
11 FC Felgueiras 34 11 11 12 34:38 44
12 Lusitania FC 34 11 10 13 44:52 43
13 Sporting CP B 34 13 3 18 41:34 42
14 Penafiel 34 11 8 15 37:39 41
15 Portimonense 34 11 7 16 39:49 40
16 SC Farense 34 10 10 14 31:37 40
17 Pacos Ferreira 34 9 12 13 34:48 39
18 Oliveirense 34 8 10 16 34:49 34
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Main)