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Penalva do Castelo vs Leca

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019
Penalva do Castelo Logo

Penalva do Castelo

1 - 1
FT
Leca Logo

Leca

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 game between Penalva do Castelo and Leca finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Penalva do Castelo
15%
Draws
76%
Leca
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / Very High Confidence
  • Leca carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 76% — that's where the model lands on Leca taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Penalva do Castelo Clean Sheet 10%
Leca Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penalva do Castelo Leca
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 5 17
Draws 7 10
Losses 18 5
Goals Scored 0.7 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 3.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs Penalva do Castelo
2:0
Jan 13, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Penalva do Castelo vs Leca
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penalva do Castelo 10 / 100
Leca 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penalva do Castelo Leca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Leca conceded in 72% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Penalva do Castelo's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Penalva do Castelo remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Penalva do Castelo VS Leca
0 Goals Scored 2.38
4 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 50%
100% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Penalva do Castelo

(Home)
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
12 May
Leca
2 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
05 May
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 2
Coimbroes
28 Apr
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 0
Paredes
20 Apr
Cinfaes
2 : 1
Penalva do Castelo
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Leca

(Away)
20 Sept
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Leca
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3
AD Fafe
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Espinho 34 20 9 5 52:20 69
2 Lusitania FC 34 19 12 3 52:27 69
3 Gondomar 34 18 10 6 50:22 64
4 Agueda 34 16 12 6 43:26 60
5 Lusitano FCV 34 17 8 9 59:28 59
6 Sanjoanense 34 15 10 9 44:34 55
7 Amarante FC 34 15 9 10 45:28 54
8 Coimbroes 34 13 10 11 43:39 49
9 Maritimo B 34 12 13 9 53:40 49
10 Paredes 34 13 7 14 42:33 46
11 U. Madeira 34 12 8 14 28:35 44
12 Leca 34 12 7 15 34:41 43
13 Pedras Rubras 34 9 15 10 36:43 42
14 Cinfaes 34 11 8 15 33:40 41
15 Gafanha 34 11 4 19 46:69 37
16 Penalva do Castelo 34 7 7 20 27:66 28
17 FC Cesarense 34 4 13 17 37:55 25
18 Meda 34 0 2 32 21:99 2
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2018/2019 (Play Offs)