Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019

Penalva do Castelo

1 - 2

Lusitania FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 game between Penalva do Castelo and Lusitania FC finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lusitania FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%

Penalva do Castelo

28%

Draws

50%

Lusitania FC

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Lusitania FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Lusitania FC come out ahead of Penalva do Castelo on wins alone.
Lusitania FC are the model's pick here, at 50%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

Penalva do Castelo Clean Sheet 19%

Lusitania FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penalva do Castelo	Lusitania FC
Matches Played	30	37
Wins	5	16
Draws	7	9
Losses	18	12
Goals Scored	0	1.5
Goals Conceded	0	1.5

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 3, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B

Penalva do Castelo vs Lusitania FC

Possession: 49% - 42% Cards: 1 - 1

1:2

Aug 26, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B

Lusitania FC vs Penalva do Castelo

Possession: 44% - 49% Cards: 2 - 3

1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penalva do Castelo 24 / 100

Lusitania FC 59 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penalva do Castelo Lusitania FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LUS Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusitania FC has conceded goals in 76% of their last 37 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Lusitania FC registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Penalva do Castelo scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lusitania FC

0 Goals Scored 1.5

0 Goals Conceded 1.5

0% Over 1.5 75%

0% Over 2.5 63%

0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Espinho	34	20	9	5	52:20	69
2	Lusitania FC	34	19	12	3	52:27	69
3	Gondomar	34	18	10	6	50:22	64
4	Agueda	34	16	12	6	43:26	60
5	Lusitano FCV	34	17	8	9	59:28	59
6	Sanjoanense	34	15	10	9	44:34	55
7	Amarante FC	34	15	9	10	45:28	54
8	Coimbroes	34	13	10	11	43:39	49
9	Maritimo B	34	12	13	9	53:40	49
10	Paredes	34	13	7	14	42:33	46
11	U. Madeira	34	12	8	14	28:35	44
12	Leca	34	12	7	15	34:41	43
13	Pedras Rubras	34	9	15	10	36:43	42
14	Cinfaes	34	11	8	15	33:40	41
15	Gafanha	34	11	4	19	46:69	37
16	Penalva do Castelo	34	7	7	20	27:66	28
17	FC Cesarense	34	4	13	17	37:55	25
18	Meda	34	0	2	32	21:99	2