Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Penalva do Castelo vs Meda

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Penalva do Castelo in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penalva do Castelo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Penalva do Castelo
15%
Draws
0%
Meda
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penalva do Castelo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Penalva do Castelo lately — more wins on the board than Meda.
  • Penalva do Castelo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Penalva do Castelo Clean Sheet 15%
Meda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penalva do Castelo Meda
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 0
Draws 7 2
Losses 18 28
Goals Scored 0.7 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.93 3.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Penalva do Castelo vs Meda
2:1
Oct 28, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Meda vs Penalva do Castelo
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penalva do Castelo 84 / 100
Meda 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penalva do Castelo Meda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penalva do Castelo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Meda conceded in 100% of 30 recent games.

Away concern: Meda has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Penalva do Castelo scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Penalva do Castelo VS Meda
0.63 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Penalva do Castelo

(Home)
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
12 May
Leca
2 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
05 May
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 2
Coimbroes
28 Apr
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 0
Paredes
20 Apr
Cinfaes
2 : 1
Penalva do Castelo
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Meda

(Away)
11 Sept
Meda
0 : 6
Beira Mar
27 Sept
Gondomar
7 : 0
Meda
12 May
Coimbroes
4 : 2
Meda
05 May
Meda
1 : 4
U. Madeira
28 Apr
Pedras Rubras
1 : 0
Meda
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Espinho 34 20 9 5 52:20 69
2 Lusitania FC 34 19 12 3 52:27 69
3 Gondomar 34 18 10 6 50:22 64
4 Agueda 34 16 12 6 43:26 60
5 Lusitano FCV 34 17 8 9 59:28 59
6 Sanjoanense 34 15 10 9 44:34 55
7 Amarante FC 34 15 9 10 45:28 54
8 Coimbroes 34 13 10 11 43:39 49
9 Maritimo B 34 12 13 9 53:40 49
10 Paredes 34 13 7 14 42:33 46
11 U. Madeira 34 12 8 14 28:35 44
12 Leca 34 12 7 15 34:41 43
13 Pedras Rubras 34 9 15 10 36:43 42
14 Cinfaes 34 11 8 15 33:40 41
15 Gafanha 34 11 4 19 46:69 37
16 Penalva do Castelo 34 7 7 20 27:66 28
17 FC Cesarense 34 4 13 17 37:55 25
18 Meda 34 0 2 32 21:99 2
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2018/2019 (Play Offs)