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Penapolense vs ECUS SP

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
da Silva B.
44' Event
Juninho
90' Event
Moreira R.

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 game between Penapolense and ECUS SP finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Penapolense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Penapolense
35%
Draws
36%
ECUS SP
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: ECUS SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Penapolense's 1.48 goals per match outpaces what ECUS SP have produced (0.88).
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Penapolense Clean Sheet 27%
ECUS SP Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penapolense ECUS SP
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 13 13
Draws 13 10
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.48 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.61
Expected Goals (xG) 0.89 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs ECUS SP
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penapolense Compare

Top Goalscorer da Silva B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Juninho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.45

ECUS SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Moreira R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penapolense 38 / 100
ECUS SP 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penapolense ECUS SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ECUS SP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Penapolense stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Penapolense scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

ECUS SP has conceded goals in 48% of their last 33 outings.

Scoring Trends

Penapolense VS ECUS SP
1.63 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.14
63% Over 1.5 43%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Penapolense

(Home)
09 May
Inter de Bebedouro
1 : 1
Penapolense
06 May
Penapolense
2 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
02 May
Sao Caetano
2 : 2
Penapolense
25 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 1
Sao Caetano
18 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 2
Taquaritinga
Page 1 of 7

ECUS SP

(Away)
04 Apr
Jacarei FC
0 : 0
ECUS SP
28 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
Lemense
25 Mar
Nacional SP
0 : 0
ECUS SP
21 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
AEA Aracatuba
18 Mar
Colorado Caieiras
0 : 2
ECUS SP
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)