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Penarol U20 vs Alianza Lima U20 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

South America South America

Copa Libertadores U20 2023 Estadio La Portada, La Serena
Penarol U20 Logo

Penarol U20

4 - 1
FT
Alianza Lima U20 Logo

Alianza Lima U20

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Diaz S.
19'
Rodriguez Canobra A.
24' Event
Diaz S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Penarol U20 in this Copa Libertadores U20 2023 tie, finishing 4-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

72%
Penarol U20
15%
Draws
13%
Alianza Lima U20
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penarol U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / High Confidence
  • Penarol U20 have won more games recently than Alianza Lima U20.
  • Penarol U20 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Penarol U20 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Penarol U20, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Penarol U20 Clean Sheet 68%
Alianza Lima U20 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol U20 Alianza Lima U20
Matches Played 11 3
Wins 7 0
Draws 1 1
Losses 3 2
Goals Scored 2 0.33
Goals Conceded 1 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.29 0.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2023 Copa Libertadores U20
Penarol U20 vs Alianza Lima U20
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz S.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Ferreira J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.15

Alianza Lima U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Aranda S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.49
Avg xA / game 0.3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol U20 95 / 100
Alianza Lima U20 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol U20 Alianza Lima U20

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol U20 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol U20 scored in 82% of their last 11 games.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Alianza Lima U20's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 3 matches.

Recent resilience: Penarol U20 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Penarol U20 VS Alianza Lima U20
2.25 Goals Scored 0.33
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.33
88% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol U20

(Home)
16 Jul
Penarol U20
2 : 3
Cerro Porteno U20
13 Jul
Penarol U20
0 : 1
Boca Juniors U20
07 Jul
O'Higgins U20
1 : 2
Penarol U20
04 Jul
Penarol U20
4 : 1
Alianza Lima U20
01 Jul
Penarol U20
5 : 1
Caracas U20
Page 1 of 3

Alianza Lima U20

(Away)
07 Jul
Caracas U20
3 : 0
Alianza Lima U20
04 Jul
Penarol U20
4 : 1
Alianza Lima U20
01 Jul
Alianza Lima U20
0 : 0
O'Higgins U20

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Penarol U20 3 3 0 0 11:3 9
2 Caracas U20 3 2 0 1 8:6 6
3 O'Higgins U20 3 0 1 2 2:6 1
4 Alianza Lima U20 3 0 1 2 1:7 1
Promotion - Copa Libertadores U20 2023 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle U20 3 3 0 0 10:1 9
2 Cerro Porteno U20 3 2 0 1 7:4 6
3 Envigado U20 3 1 0 2 1:3 3
4 Always Ready U20 3 0 0 3 1:11 0
Promotion - Copa Libertadores U20 2023 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Boca Juniors U20 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
2 Palmeiras U20 3 1 2 0 6:5 5
3 Defensor Sp. U20 3 1 0 2 4:3 3
4 Huachipato U20 3 0 1 2 2:6 1
Promotion - Copa Libertadores U20 2023 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams