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Penarol U20 vs Caracas U20 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

South America South America

Copa Libertadores U20 2022 Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Alonso M.
26' Event
Sulbaran M.
61' Event
Alonso M.

AI Match Summary

Penarol U20 in this Copa Libertadores U20 2022 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Penarol U20
15%
Draws
34%
Caracas U20
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penarol U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Penarol U20 lately — more wins on the board than Caracas U20.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Penarol U20 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Penarol U20, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Penarol U20 Clean Sheet 16%
Caracas U20 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol U20 Caracas U20
Matches Played 11 8
Wins 7 4
Draws 1 0
Losses 3 4
Goals Scored 2 2.13
Goals Conceded 1 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2023 Copa Libertadores U20
Penarol U20 vs Caracas U20
5:1
Feb 17, 2022 Copa Libertadores U20
Penarol U20 vs Caracas U20
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Alonso M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Caracas U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Sulbaran M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol U20 30 / 100
Caracas U20 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol U20 Caracas U20

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol U20 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol U20 scored in 82% of their last 11 games.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Caracas U20 has conceded goals in 75% of their last 8 outings.

Recent resilience: Penarol U20 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Penarol U20 VS Caracas U20
2.25 Goals Scored 2.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol U20

(Home)
16 Jul
Penarol U20
2 : 3
Cerro Porteno U20
13 Jul
Penarol U20
0 : 1
Boca Juniors U20
07 Jul
O'Higgins U20
1 : 2
Penarol U20
04 Jul
Penarol U20
4 : 1
Alianza Lima U20
01 Jul
Penarol U20
5 : 1
Caracas U20
Page 1 of 3

Caracas U20

(Away)
07 Jul
Caracas U20
3 : 0
Alianza Lima U20
04 Jul
Caracas U20
4 : 1
O'Higgins U20
01 Jul
Penarol U20
5 : 1
Caracas U20
20 Feb
Guarani U20
3 : 2
Caracas U20
17 Feb
Penarol U20
2 : 1
Caracas U20
Page 1 of 2

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Independiente del Valle U20 3
Guarani U20 1
Penarol U20 2
Caracas U20 1
Final
Independiente del Valle U20 1
Penarol U20 2
Guarani U20 3
Caracas U20 2