Sport Picks
Penarol vs Boston River
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo 
Match Events
38'
38'
Bonfiglio F.
40'
40'
Darias E.
41'
41'
Gonzalez M.
AI Match Summary
Penarol in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penarol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
53%
15%
32%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penarol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Penarol lately — more wins on the board than Boston River.
- Penarol are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
Boston River Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Penarol | Boston River |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 32 |
| Wins | 14 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 1.06 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.94 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 18, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Boston River
3:0
Mar 25, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Boston River vs Penarol
0:2
Jan 23, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Penarol vs Boston River
2:3
Aug 15, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Boston River vs Penarol
2:1
Feb 15, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Boston River
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Penarol Compare
Top Goalscorer Darias E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Romero F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Boston River Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Penarol 86 / 100
Boston River 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Penarol Boston River
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Penarol found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).
Boston River has conceded goals in 78% of their last 32 outings.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Penarol went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Penarol VS Boston River
2.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Penarol
(Home) 19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Penarol
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1 Albion
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4 Penarol
02 Sept
Atenas
2 : 2 Penarol
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1 Club Nacional
Page 1 of 7
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1 Albion
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1 Club Nacional
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 0 Montevideo City
16 Aug
Penarol
2 : 1 Central Esp.
05 Aug
Penarol
5 : 1 Wanderers
Page 1 of 4
Boston River
(Away) 19 Sept
Boston River
1 : 2 Progreso
12 Sept
Racing Montevideo
3 : 2 Boston River
09 Sept
Boston River
2 : 0 Colon
06 Sept
Liverpool M.
1 : 0 Boston River
02 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 1 Boston River
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Racing Montevideo
3 : 2 Boston River
06 Sept
Liverpool M.
1 : 0 Boston River
02 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 1 Boston River
21 Aug
Albion
2 : 3 Boston River
09 Aug
Club Nacional
1 : 2 Boston River
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool M. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | CA Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sp. | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | 5 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:8 | 13 |
| 3 | Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | 12 |
| 4 | Montevideo City | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11:11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5:9 | 4 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
