Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Penarol vs Central Esp.

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

40'
Laxalt D.
46'
Sub
Laxalt D. In: Cabrera J.
Out: Laxalt D.
46'
Sub
Togni G. In: Hernandez A.
Out: Togni G.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Penarol and Central Esp. finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Central Esp..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Penarol
33%
Draws
27%
Central Esp.
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Penarol carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Penarol taking it.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
Central Esp. Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol Central Esp.
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 17 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.25 0.88
Goals Conceded 1 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 1, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
0:1
Feb 15, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Central Esp. vs Penarol
2:1
Jan 13, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Penarol vs Central Esp.
1:0
Mar 29, 2013 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
3:1
Oct 6, 2012 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Central Esp. Compare

Top Goalscorer Pino L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 50 / 100
Central Esp. 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol Central Esp.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Central Esp. let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Penarol has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Central Esp.
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)
18 Jul
Penarol
3 : 0
Boston River
12 Jul
Racing Montevideo
1 : 1
Penarol
07 Jun
CA Cerro
0 : 1
Penarol
01 Jun
Penarol
0 : 1
Central Esp.
28 May
Penarol
0 : 1
Santa Fe
Page 1 of 7

Central Esp.

(Away)
12 Jul
Boston River
0 : 0
Central Esp.
06 Jun
Central Esp.
1 : 1
Racing Montevideo
01 Jun
Penarol
0 : 1
Central Esp.
24 May
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Central Esp.
17 May
Central Esp.
2 : 1
Defensor Sp.
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol64119:313
2Cerro Largo52216:28
3Central Esp.52214:38
4Racing Montevideo51403:27
5CA Cerro52034:86
6Liverpool M.51223:45
7Boston River61235:95
8Defensor Sp.50323:63
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wanderers633010:412
2Maldonado632112:611
3Club Nacional63126:710
4Montevideo City530210:99
5Juventud62138:117
6Progreso62045:96
7Albion61234:65
8Danubio50323:63
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)