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Penarol vs Central Esp.

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

40'
Laxalt D.
46'
Sub
Laxalt D. In: Cabrera J.
Out: Laxalt D.
46'
Sub
Togni G. In: Hernandez A.
Out: Togni G.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Penarol and Central Esp. finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Central Esp..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Penarol
35%
Draws
31%
Central Esp.
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Penarol carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
Central Esp. Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol Central Esp.
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 14 10
Draws 9 9
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.48 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
2:1
Jun 1, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
0:1
Feb 15, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Central Esp. vs Penarol
2:1
Jan 13, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Penarol vs Central Esp.
1:0
Mar 29, 2013 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Central Esp. Compare

Top Goalscorer Pino L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 41 / 100
Central Esp. 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol Central Esp.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Central Esp. let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Penarol has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Central Esp.
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Penarol
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1
Albion
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4
Penarol
02 Sept
Atenas
2 : 2
Penarol
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1
Club Nacional
Page 1 of 7

Central Esp.

(Away)
17 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1
Club Oriental De Futbol
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0
Central Esp.
09 Sept
Racing Montevideo
2 : 4
Central Esp.
06 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
02 Sept
Central Esp.
3 : 0
Juventud
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Penarol 7 5 1 1 12:3 16
2 Cerro Largo 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
3 Racing Montevideo 7 2 4 1 4:3 10
4 Liverpool M. 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
5 Central Esp. 7 2 3 2 4:4 9
6 CA Cerro 7 3 0 4 6:10 9
7 Defensor Sp. 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
8 Boston River 7 1 2 4 5:10 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wanderers 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
2 Club Nacional 7 4 1 2 8:8 13
3 Maldonado 7 3 3 1 12:6 12
4 Montevideo City 7 4 0 3 11:11 12
5 Juventud 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
6 Albion 7 1 3 3 6:8 6
7 Progreso 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
8 Danubio 7 0 4 3 5:9 4
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)