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Penarol vs Central Esp.

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Munoz F.
27'
Lemos M.
46'
Sub
Munoz F. In: Pino L.
Out: Munoz F.

AI Match Summary

Penarol in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penarol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Penarol
30%
Draws
19%
Central Esp.
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Penarol have won more games recently than Central Esp..
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Penarol taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
Central Esp. Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol Central Esp.
Matches Played 33 32
Wins 18 14
Draws 7 9
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.52 1.16
Goals Conceded 0.91 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
2:1
Jun 1, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
0:1
Feb 15, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Central Esp. vs Penarol
2:1
Jan 13, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Penarol vs Central Esp.
1:0
Mar 29, 2013 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Olivera M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jaime C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Central Esp. Compare

Top Goalscorer Gandolfo G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 95 / 100
Central Esp. 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol Central Esp.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (33 games).

Solid form: Penarol remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Defensive concern: Central Esp. conceded in 53% of 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Central Esp.
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 25%
25% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)
16 Aug
Penarol
2 : 1
Central Esp.
05 Aug
Penarol
5 : 1
Wanderers
01 Aug
Penarol
3 : 0
Cerro Largo
18 Jul
Penarol
3 : 0
Boston River
12 Jul
Racing Montevideo
1 : 1
Penarol
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Central Esp.

(Away)
16 Aug
Penarol
2 : 1
Central Esp.
08 Aug
Central Esp.
1 : 0
Progreso
02 Aug
Central Esp.
0 : 0
Liverpool M.
25 Jul
Central Esp.
0 : 1
Cerro Largo
12 Jul
Boston River
0 : 0
Central Esp.
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 3 3 0 0 9:0 9
2 Boston River 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
3 Montevideo City 2 2 0 0 6:1 6
4 CA Cerro 3 2 0 1 3:5 6
5 Racing Montevideo 3 1 2 0 4:2 5
6 Maldonado 3 1 2 0 4:2 5
7 Penarol 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
8 Juventud 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
9 Wanderers 3 1 1 1 3:6 4
10 Cerro Largo 3 0 3 0 3:3 3
11 Central Esp. 3 1 0 2 2:3 3
12 Club Nacional 3 1 0 2 2:4 3
13 Danubio 3 0 2 1 0:1 2
14 Defensor Sp. 3 0 1 2 1:6 1
15 Albion 3 0 0 3 3:6 0
16 Progreso 3 0 0 3 0:4 0
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)