Sport Picks
Penarol vs Central Esp. - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo 
Match Events
25'
25'
Munoz F.
27'
27'
Lemos M.
46'
46'
Sub
Munoz F. In: Pino L.
Out: Munoz F.
AI Match Summary
Penarol in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penarol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
55%
35%
10%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Penarol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
55%
/ Medium Confidence
- Penarol have won more games recently than Central Esp..
- 55% — that's where the model lands on Penarol taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
Central Esp. Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Penarol | Central Esp. |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 28 |
| Wins | 16 | 9 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 7 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.59 | 1.18 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.91 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
2:1
Jun 1, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
0:1
Feb 15, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Central Esp. vs Penarol
2:1
Jan 13, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Penarol vs Central Esp.
1:0
Mar 29, 2013 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Central Esp.
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Penarol Compare
Top Goalscorer Olivera M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Jaime C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Central Esp. Compare
Top Goalscorer Gandolfo G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Penarol 95 / 100
Central Esp. 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Penarol Central Esp.
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Penarol found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (32 games).
Solid form: Penarol remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Central Esp. let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Penarol VS Central Esp.
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Penarol
(Home) 04 Oct
Racing Montevideo
0 : 1 Penarol
30 Sept
Montevideo City
1 : 1 Penarol
26 Sept
Penarol
2 : 1 Boston River
24 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1 Penarol
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Penarol
Page 1 of 7
26 Sept
Penarol
2 : 1 Boston River
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1 Albion
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1 Club Nacional
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 0 Montevideo City
16 Aug
Penarol
2 : 1 Central Esp.
Page 1 of 4
Central Esp.
(Away) 03 Oct
Maldonado
3 : 0 Central Esp.
27 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 2 Liverpool M.
21 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 4 Montevideo City
17 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1 Club Oriental De Futbol
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0 Central Esp.
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Maldonado
3 : 0 Central Esp.
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0 Central Esp.
09 Sept
Racing Montevideo
2 : 4 Central Esp.
28 Aug
Wanderers
3 : 0 Central Esp.
16 Aug
Penarol
2 : 1 Central Esp.
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool M. | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 20 |
| 2 | Montevideo City | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19:10 | 19 |
| 3 | Penarol | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15:6 | 19 |
| 4 | Maldonado | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:5 | 17 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 17 |
| 6 | Wanderers | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12:11 | 15 |
| 7 | Juventud | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 8 | CA Cerro | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 14 |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9:8 | 12 |
| 10 | Progreso | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9:12 | 12 |
| 11 | Boston River | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10:12 | 9 |
| 12 | Defensor Sp. | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:16 | 8 |
| 13 | Danubio | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4:10 | 7 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6:12 | 5 |
| 15 | Central Esp. | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5:16 | 5 |
| 16 | Albion | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9:18 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)
