Sport Picks

South America

Copa Libertadores Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo

Penarol

1 - 1

Corinthians

Our Tip

Match Events

19'

Olivera M.

Assist: Trindade J.

60'

Sub

Gularte E. In: Alvez F.

Out: Gularte E.

60'

Sub

Darias E. In: Angulo L.

Out: Darias E.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%

Penarol

30%

Draws

Corinthians

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence

Penarol have won more games recently than Corinthians.
Penarol are the model's pick here, at 90%.
Penarol have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Penarol, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%

Penarol Clean Sheet 68%

Corinthians Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penarol	Corinthians
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	12	11
Draws	9	7
Losses	7	11
Goals Scored	1.5	1.1
Goals Conceded	0.96	1.07
Expected Goals (xG)	1.56	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Penarol vs Corinthians

1:1

May 1, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Corinthians vs Penarol

2:0

May 14, 2021 Copa Sudamericana

Penarol vs Corinthians

4:0

Apr 29, 2021 Copa Sudamericana

Corinthians vs Penarol

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Olivera M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.2

Avg xA / game 0.78

Corinthians Compare

Top Goalscorer Labyad Z.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 95 / 100

Corinthians 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penarol Corinthians

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Penarol scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Corinthians conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Corinthians

1.75 Goals Scored 0.75

0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38

63% Over 1.5 63%

63% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)

24 Sept

Danubio

1 : 1

Penarol

19 Sept

CA Cerro

1 : 2

Penarol

13 Sept

Penarol

3 : 1

Albion

05 Sept

Danubio

0 : 4

Penarol

02 Sept

Atenas

2 : 2

Penarol

Page 1 of 6

Corinthians

(Away)

20 Sept

Corinthians

1 : 3

Fluminense

17 Sept

Corinthians

0 : 1

Estudiantes L.P.

13 Sept

Flamengo RJ

2 : 1

Corinthians

10 Sept

Estudiantes L.P.

1 : 1

Corinthians

06 Sept

Corinthians

1 : 2

Chapecoense-SC

Page 1 of 6