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Penarol vs Itacoatiara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Amazonense 2022
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Erivelton
90' Event
Paulo C.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato Amazonense 2022 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Penarol
20%
Draws
32%
Itacoatiara
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Penarol lately — more wins on the board than Itacoatiara.
  • Itacoatiara are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Penarol Clean Sheet 10%
Itacoatiara Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol Itacoatiara
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 4 6
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 0.97 0.87
Goals Conceded 2.37 2.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2025 Amazonense 2
Penarol vs Itacoatiara
1:2
Feb 2, 2022 Amazonense
Penarol vs Itacoatiara
1:1
Apr 11, 2021 Amazonense
Penarol vs Itacoatiara
0:0
Apr 8, 2021 Amazonense
Itacoatiara vs Penarol
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Erivelton
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Itacoatiara Compare

Top Goalscorer Paulo C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 10 / 100
Itacoatiara 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol Itacoatiara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itacoatiara Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itacoatiara's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Penarol's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Itacoatiara lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Itacoatiara
1 Goals Scored 1.25
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)
30 Aug
Penarol
2 : 9
RB do Norte
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 5
Fast Clube
21 Aug
Cliper
1 : 2
Penarol
12 Aug
Penarol
0 : 3
Manicore
09 Aug
Operario Esporte Clube
4 : 0
Penarol
Page 1 of 6

Itacoatiara

(Away)
26 Feb
Manauara
3 : 2
Itacoatiara
21 Feb
Itacoatiara
0 : 1
Parintins
13 Feb
Amazonas
0 : 0
Itacoatiara
04 Feb
Amazonas
2 : 0
Itacoatiara
31 Jan
Itacoatiara
1 : 1
Manauara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Princesa do Solimoes 11 7 4 0 27:5 25
2 Nacional-AM (Manaus) 11 7 2 2 21:5 23
3 Manaus FC 11 6 4 1 27:9 22
4 Fast Clube 11 5 5 1 18:7 20
5 Amazonas 11 5 3 3 17:8 18
6 Manauara 11 5 3 3 15:11 18
7 Iranduba 11 4 5 2 15:9 17
8 Operario Esporte Clube 11 4 2 5 10:11 14
9 Sao Raimundo AM 11 3 1 7 23:16 10
10 Cliper 11 2 1 8 13:43 7
11 Penarol 11 1 2 8 5:27 5
12 Itacoatiara 11 0 2 9 4:44 2
Promotion - Campeonato Amazonense 2022 (Play Offs)