Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Penarol vs Liverpool M.

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Trindade J.
5' Event
Martinez F.
8'
Olivera M.

AI Match Summary

Penarol in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penarol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Penarol
30%
Draws
27%
Liverpool M.
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Penarol at 1.48 per game, Liverpool M. at 1.31.
  • Win probability leans Penarol's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
Liverpool M. Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol Liverpool M.
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 12
Draws 9 9
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.48 1.31
Goals Conceded 1 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Liverpool M.
2:1
Apr 13, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Liverpool M.
0:2
Nov 16, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Penarol
1:2
Sep 13, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Penarol
2:2
Sep 10, 2025 Copa Uruguay
Penarol vs Liverpool M.
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Trindade J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandez N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Liverpool M. Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 86 / 100
Liverpool M. 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol Liverpool M.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Penarol remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Penarol's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Liverpool M.'s defensive record shows goals conceded in 45% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Liverpool M.
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)
24 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1
Penarol
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Penarol
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1
Albion
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4
Penarol
02 Sept
Atenas
2 : 2
Penarol
Page 1 of 6

Liverpool M.

(Away)
23 Sept
Liverpool M.
3 : 0
Colon
20 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Racing Montevideo
14 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 1
Liverpool M.
06 Sept
Liverpool M.
1 : 0
Boston River
02 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 1
Boston River
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Penarol 7 5 1 1 12:3 16
2 Cerro Largo 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
3 Racing Montevideo 7 2 4 1 4:3 10
4 Liverpool M. 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
5 Central Esp. 7 2 3 2 4:4 9
6 CA Cerro 7 3 0 4 6:10 9
7 Defensor Sp. 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
8 Boston River 7 1 2 4 5:10 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wanderers 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
2 Club Nacional 7 4 1 2 8:8 13
3 Maldonado 7 3 3 1 12:6 12
4 Montevideo City 7 4 0 3 11:11 12
5 Juventud 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
6 Albion 7 1 3 3 6:8 6
7 Progreso 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
8 Danubio 7 0 4 3 5:9 4
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)