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Penarol vs Sul America

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Amazonense 2011
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Penarol in this Campeonato Amazonense 2011 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penarol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Penarol
39%
Draws
30%
Sul America
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Penarol lately — more wins on the board than Sul America.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Penarol here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Penarol Clean Sheet 19%
Sul America Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol Sul America
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 10
Draws 6 2
Losses 14 18
Goals Scored 1.4 2
Goals Conceded 0.6 2.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.40 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.60 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2019 Amazonense
Sul America vs Penarol
2:1
Mar 2, 2019 Amazonense
Penarol vs Sul America
1:0
Mar 23, 2014 Amazonense
Sul America vs Penarol
1:3
Apr 28, 2013 Amazonense
Penarol vs Sul America
4:0
May 1, 2011 Amazonense
Penarol vs Sul America
3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 32 / 100
Sul America 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol Sul America

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SUL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sul America has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Penarol scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Penarol remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Sul America
1.4 Goals Scored 2
0.6 Goals Conceded 2.88
80% Over 1.5 100%
20% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol852112:417
2Sao Raimundo AM84319:515
3Nacional-AM (Manaus)842213:714
4Fast Clube842212:914
5Operario Esporte Clube832314:1411
6Atletico Rio Negro (Amazonas)831410:1310
7America AM813411:166
8Sul America813411:186
9Princesa do Solimoes812510:165