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Penarol W vs Gimnasia L.P. W

South America South America

Brasil Ladies Cup Women 2025 Estadio do Caninde, Sao Paulo
Sun, Oct 19, 2025
1 - 2
06:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Gaetan F.
82' Event
1' Event
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Gimnasia L.P. W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Penarol W
15%
Draws
85%
Gimnasia L.P. W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gimnasia L.P. W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Gimnasia L.P. W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Gimnasia L.P. W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Gimnasia L.P. W, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Penarol W Clean Sheet 10%
Gimnasia L.P. W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol W Gimnasia L.P. W
Matches Played 16 29
Wins 1 10
Draws 5 5
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 0.69 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 19, 2025 Brasil Ladies Cup Women
Penarol W vs Gimnasia L.P. W
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Gimnasia L.P. W Compare

Top Goalscorer Gaetan F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol W 34 / 100
Gimnasia L.P. W 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol W Gimnasia L.P. W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gimnasia L.P. W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gimnasia L.P. W has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Gimnasia L.P. W registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Penarol W scored in 50% of their last 16 games.

Scoring Trends

Penarol W VS Gimnasia L.P. W
1 Goals Scored 1.75
3 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol W

(Home)
12 Jul
Penarol W
1 : 2
Paraguay W
09 Jul
CR Flamengo W
4 : 1
Penarol W
19 Oct
Penarol W
1 : 2
Gimnasia L.P. W
16 Oct
Gremio W
2 : 0
Penarol W
10 Oct
Independiente del Valle W
2 : 0
Penarol W
Page 1 of 4

Gimnasia L.P. W

(Away)
28 Sept
Social Atletico Television W
1 : 1
Gimnasia L.P. W
18 Sept
Newells Old Boys W
0 : 1
Gimnasia L.P. W
12 Sept
Gimnasia L.P. W
0 : 4
Racing Club W
04 Sept
San Lorenzo W
2 : 0
Gimnasia L.P. W
30 Aug
Gimnasia L.P. W
1 : 2
Talleres Cordoba W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Gremio W 2
Penarol W 0
Palmeiras W 3
Gimnasia L.P. W 2
Final
Gremio W 2
Palmeiras W 4
Penarol W 1
Gimnasia L.P. W 2