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Peninsula U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior U23

Australia Australia

NPL Queensland U23
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AI Match Summary

The NPL Queensland U23 game between Peninsula U23 and Moreton City Excelsior U23 finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Moreton City Excelsior U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Peninsula U23
22%
Draws
60%
Moreton City Excelsior U23
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Moreton City Excelsior U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Moreton City Excelsior U23 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Moreton City Excelsior U23 are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular NPL Queensland U23 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Peninsula U23 Clean Sheet 10%
Moreton City Excelsior U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Peninsula U23 Moreton City Excelsior U23
Matches Played 18 17
Wins 6 10
Draws 2 2
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 2.5 2.63
Goals Conceded 2.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 NPL Queensland U23
Peninsula U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior U23
1:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Peninsula U23 18 / 100
Moreton City Excelsior U23 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Peninsula U23 Moreton City Excelsior U23

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Peninsula U23 scored in 78% of their last 18 outings.

Defensive concern: Moreton City Excelsior U23 conceded in 76% of 17 recent games.

Peninsula U23 has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Peninsula U23 VS Moreton City Excelsior U23
2.5 Goals Scored 2.63
2.75 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Queensland Lions U2317114244:1837
2Rochedale U2317112446:2335
3Gold Coast Knights SC U2317111545:2834
4Moreton City Excelsior U2317102548:2432
5Eastern Suburbs U231792637:2229
6Gold Coast U231782741:4026
7Olympic FC U231872931:4023
8Peninsula U2318621034:4320
9Wynnum Wolves U2318621026:4120
10QLD State Team U171661935:4319
11Brisbane City U2318531035:5018
12Magic United TFA FC U2318211513:637