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Peninsula vs Rochedale

Australia Australia

NPL Queensland AJ Kelly Park, Brisbane
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Joseph N.
62' Event
Kovach E.
70' Event
Kljajic O.

AI Match Summary

Peninsula in this NPL Queensland matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Peninsula.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Peninsula
30%
Draws
47%
Rochedale
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rochedale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Peninsula have won more games recently than Rochedale.
  • 23% — that's where the model lands on Peninsula taking it.
  • Regular NPL Queensland form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Peninsula have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Peninsula Clean Sheet 16%
Rochedale Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Peninsula Rochedale
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 15 10
Draws 8 4
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 1.81 1.56
Goals Conceded 1.32 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 NPL Queensland
Rochedale vs Peninsula
0:2
Mar 29, 2026 NPL Queensland
Peninsula vs Rochedale
3:1
Jun 22, 2024 NPL Queensland
Peninsula vs Rochedale
2:1
Mar 23, 2024 NPL Queensland
Rochedale vs Peninsula
0:2
Jul 21, 2023 NPL Queensland
Peninsula vs Rochedale
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Peninsula Compare

Top Goalscorer Joseph N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kovach E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Rochedale Compare

Top Goalscorer Kljajic O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Peninsula 39 / 100
Rochedale 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Peninsula Rochedale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Peninsula Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Peninsula found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (31 games).

Rochedale's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Peninsula went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Peninsula VS Rochedale
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Peninsula

(Home)
14 Aug
Peninsula
2 : 2
Brisbane City
08 Aug
Gold Coast Knights SC
2 : 2
Peninsula
01 Aug
Queensland Lions
1 : 0
Peninsula
18 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior
2 : 2
Peninsula
14 Jul
APIA Leichhardt
2 : 1
Peninsula
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Rochedale

(Away)
14 Aug
Olympic FC
1 : 2
Rochedale
08 Aug
Magic United TFA FC
2 : 1
Rochedale
31 Jul
Rochedale
2 : 1
Eastern Suburbs
18 Jul
Rochedale
2 : 3
Brisbane City
14 Jul
Rochedale
1 : 2
SD Raiders
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Queensland Lions 22 17 2 3 57:22 53
2 Peninsula 22 13 6 3 49:27 45
3 Moreton City Excelsior 22 12 3 7 51:35 39
4 Gold Coast Knights SC 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
5 Brisbane City 22 9 7 6 47:48 34
6 Wynnum Wolves 22 9 6 7 36:40 33
7 Eastern Suburbs 22 9 2 11 34:35 29
8 Olympic FC 22 8 2 12 39:43 26
9 Magic United TFA FC 22 7 1 14 33:59 22
10 Rochedale 22 6 3 13 34:52 21
11 Gold Coast Utd 22 6 2 14 26:39 20
12 Brisbane Roar U23 22 5 1 16 32:52 16
Promotion - NPL Queensland (Play Offs)
Relegation - Queensland Premier League (Main)