Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Penybont vs Colwyn Bay

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier Bryntirion Park, Bridgend
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Sub
Leko J. In: Pritchard O.
Out: Leko J.
20'
Sub
Hill R. In: Cann E.
Out: Hill R.
28' Event
Pritchard O.

AI Match Summary

Penybont in this Cymru Premier matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penybont.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Penybont
15%
Draws
42%
Colwyn Bay
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penybont

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Penybont haven't matched Colwyn Bay's recent run of results.
  • Penybont are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Penybont Clean Sheet 68%
Colwyn Bay Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penybont Colwyn Bay
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 14
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.14 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Cymru Premier
Penybont vs Colwyn Bay
1:0
Apr 25, 2026 Cymru Premier
Colwyn Bay vs Penybont
0:1
Mar 28, 2026 Cymru Premier
Penybont vs Colwyn Bay
0:0
Feb 21, 2026 Cymru Premier
Colwyn Bay vs Penybont
3:1
Nov 29, 2025 Cymru Premier
Colwyn Bay vs Penybont
5:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penybont Compare

Top Goalscorer Pritchard O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Colwyn Bay Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penybont 68 / 100
Colwyn Bay 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penybont Colwyn Bay

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penybont Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penybont found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

Colwyn Bay's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Penybont remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Penybont VS Colwyn Bay
2.13 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Penybont

(Home)
03 Oct
Connahs Q.
1 : 0
Penybont
26 Sept
Penybont
2 : 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC
18 Sept
Ammanford Town
1 : 5
Penybont
15 Sept
Penybont
3 : 2
Briton Ferry
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1
Penybont
Page 1 of 6

Colwyn Bay

(Away)
03 Oct
Briton Ferry
1 : 0
Colwyn Bay
26 Sept
Colwyn Bay
1 : 0
Haverfordwest
18 Sept
Colwyn Bay
5 : 2
Barry Town
15 Sept
Holywell Town FC
0 : 5
Colwyn Bay
12 Sept
Colwyn Bay
2 : 1
Connahs Q.
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 12 11 1 0 38:5 34
2 Connahs Q. 12 9 1 2 28:8 28
3 Penybont 12 8 3 1 22:10 27
4 Barry Town 12 8 1 3 27:20 25
5 Caernarfon 12 7 2 3 35:14 23
6 Colwyn Bay 12 7 1 4 21:15 22
7 Cardiff Metropolitan University 12 6 3 3 23:13 21
8 Airbus UK Broughton FC 12 6 0 6 21:17 18
9 Cambrian United 12 5 3 4 21:32 18
10 Llandudno FC 12 5 1 6 21:19 16
11 Briton Ferry 12 3 3 6 11:20 12
12 Haverfordwest 12 3 1 8 7:17 10
13 Flint Town 12 2 2 8 12:24 8
14 Ammanford Town 12 1 3 8 9:32 6
15 Trefelin 12 0 3 9 5:30 3
16 Holywell Town FC 12 0 2 10 13:38 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)