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Penza vs Salyut-Belgorod

Russia Russia

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Penza play Salyut-Belgorod in the FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3. Salyut-Belgorod are favorites here. Recently, Penza averaged 1 goals scored and 1.87 conceded. Salyut-Belgorod averaged 1.85 goals scored and 0.91 conceded. In past meetings, Penza won 0, Salyut-Belgorod won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jul 1, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Penza and 1.00 for Salyut-Belgorod. This points to a Salyut-Belgorod double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Penza
25%
Draws
60%
Salyut-Belgorod
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Salyut-Belgorod

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Penza picked up more points recently compared to Salyut-Belgorod.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Penza Clean Sheet 23%
Salyut-Belgorod Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penza Salyut-Belgorod
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 7 19
Draws 3 4
Losses 20 10
Goals Scored 1 1.85
Goals Conceded 1.87 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs Salyut-Belgorod
1:2
Oct 18, 2025 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs Salyut-Belgorod
0:1
Jun 28, 2025 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Salyut-Belgorod vs Penza
2:0
Aug 11, 2024 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs Salyut-Belgorod
2:2
Apr 28, 2024 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Salyut-Belgorod vs Penza
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penza Compare

Top Goalscorer Poptsov M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Salyut-Belgorod Compare

Top Goalscorer Boyarkin N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penza 18 / 100
Salyut-Belgorod 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penza Salyut-Belgorod

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Salyut-Belgorod Win (2)
Secondary Pick Salyut-Belgorod & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Penza attacking → ← attacking Salyut-Belgorod

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penza scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Salyut-Belgorod let in goals in 64% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Penza went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Salyut-Belgorod lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 61
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
3.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25