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Pergolettese vs Carpi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A Giuseppe Voltini, Crema
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
12:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pergolettese host Carpi in the Serie C - Group A. Little to choose between these two on current form. Pergolettese have averaged 0.89 scored and 0.96 conceded recently, against Carpi's 1.11 scored and 1.54 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (1.06 xG vs 1.25) point toward Pergolettese. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Pergolettese
35%
Draws
27%
Carpi
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pergolettese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pergolettese come out ahead of Carpi on wins alone.
  • 38% — that's where the model lands on Pergolettese taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Pergolettese Clean Sheet 19%
Carpi Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pergolettese Carpi
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 7
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 0.89 1.11
Goals Conceded 0.96 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pergolettese 67 / 100
Carpi 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pergolettese Carpi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pergolettese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carpi has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Pergolettese remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Pergolettese scored in 54% of their last 28 games.

Carpi lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pergolettese VS Carpi
0.25 Goals Scored 1.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
25% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Pergolettese

(Home)
26 Sept
Pergolettese
0 : 0
Trento
20 Sept
Lecco
0 : 0
Pergolettese
17 Sept
Pergolettese
0 : 0
Folgore Caratese
13 Sept
Novara
0 : 1
Pergolettese
06 Sept
Juventus U23
0 : 0
Pergolettese
Page 1 of 6

Carpi

(Away)
27 Sept
Carpi
0 : 3
Arzignano
20 Sept
Novara
2 : 2
Carpi
17 Sept
Carpi
2 : 2
Ospitaletto
13 Sept
Carpi
1 : 2
Cittadella
06 Sept
AlbinoLeffe
0 : 1
Carpi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cittadella 7 7 0 0 13:2 21
2 Union Brescia 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
3 Ospitaletto 7 4 2 1 13:5 14
4 Arzignano 7 4 1 2 10:7 13
5 Trento 7 3 4 0 9:3 13
6 Treviso 7 3 3 1 8:6 12
7 Alcione Milano 7 2 4 1 10:11 10
8 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 2 4 1 6:5 10
9 AlbinoLeffe 7 2 3 2 10:9 9
10 Lumezzane 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
11 Lecco 7 2 2 3 4:6 8
12 Desenzano Calvina 7 1 4 2 4:6 7
13 Pergolettese 7 1 4 2 1:3 7
14 Carpi 7 1 3 3 10:15 6
15 Folgore Caratese 7 1 3 3 8:10 6
16 Juventus U23 7 1 3 3 7:13 6
17 Novara 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
18 Pro Vercelli 7 1 3 3 6:11 6
19 Giana Erminio 7 0 3 4 6:10 3
20 Renate 7 0 2 5 5:11 2
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)