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Pergolettese vs Union Brescia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A Giuseppe Voltini, Crema
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Arini M.
40'
Roversi L.
53'
Jaouhari Z.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group A game between Pergolettese and Union Brescia finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Union Brescia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Pergolettese
35%
Draws
32%
Union Brescia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Union Brescia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 32% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Pergolettese Clean Sheet 18%
Union Brescia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pergolettese Union Brescia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 12
Draws 11 12
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 0.93 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Pergolettese vs Union Brescia
0:1
Feb 16, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Pergolettese vs Union Brescia
2:1
Oct 4, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Union Brescia vs Pergolettese
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pergolettese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Union Brescia Compare

Top Goalscorer Sina S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pergolettese 36 / 100
Union Brescia 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pergolettese Union Brescia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Union Brescia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Pergolettese remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Pergolettese found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Union Brescia conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.33 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Pergolettese VS Union Brescia
0.25 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
25% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Pergolettese

(Home)
03 Oct
Arzignano
2 : 2
Pergolettese
26 Sept
Pergolettese
0 : 0
Trento
20 Sept
Lecco
0 : 0
Pergolettese
17 Sept
Pergolettese
0 : 0
Folgore Caratese
13 Sept
Novara
0 : 1
Pergolettese
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Union Brescia

(Away)
04 Oct
Lecco
2 : 2
Union Brescia
27 Sept
Union Brescia
1 : 1
Dolomiti Bellunesi
20 Sept
Alcione Milano
0 : 4
Union Brescia
17 Sept
Union Brescia
2 : 2
Treviso
13 Sept
Trento
0 : 0
Union Brescia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cittadella 8 7 0 1 14:4 21
2 Union Brescia 8 4 4 0 14:6 16
3 Ospitaletto 8 4 3 1 14:6 15
4 Arzignano 8 4 2 2 12:9 14
5 Trento 8 3 5 0 11:5 14
6 Treviso 8 3 4 1 8:6 13
7 AlbinoLeffe 8 3 3 2 12:10 12
8 Alcione Milano 8 2 5 1 12:13 11
9 Dolomiti Bellunesi 8 2 4 2 7:7 10
10 Desenzano Calvina 8 2 4 2 6:7 10
11 Novara 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
12 Pro Vercelli 8 2 3 3 8:11 9
13 Lecco 8 2 3 3 6:8 9
14 Lumezzane 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
15 Pergolettese 8 1 5 2 3:5 8
16 Carpi 8 1 3 4 10:17 6
17 Folgore Caratese 8 1 3 4 9:12 6
18 Juventus U23 7 1 3 3 7:13 6
19 Giana Erminio 8 0 4 4 6:10 4
20 Renate 8 0 3 5 6:12 3
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)