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Perolas Negras vs Serrano FC

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2
Our Tip

Match Events

46' Event
Fonseca C.
90' Event
Ariel Nicolas
90' Event
Madureira M.

AI Match Summary

Perolas Negras in this Carioca 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Perolas Negras.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Perolas Negras
30%
Draws
37%
Serrano FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Serrano FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Serrano FC have won more games recently than Perolas Negras.
  • Perolas Negras are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Perolas Negras Clean Sheet 68%
Serrano FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Perolas Negras Serrano FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 7 11
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.2 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Carioca 2
Perolas Negras vs Serrano FC
2:1
Nov 6, 2024 Carioca B1
Serrano FC vs Perolas Negras
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Perolas Negras Compare

Top Goalscorer Ariel Nicolas
1 Goals
Assists Leader Madureira M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Serrano FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Fonseca C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Perolas Negras 46 / 100
Serrano FC 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Perolas Negras Serrano FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Perolas Negras found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Serrano FC has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Perolas Negras remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Perolas Negras VS Serrano FC
1.63 Goals Scored 0.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Perolas Negras

(Home)
22 Jul
Marica
3 : 0
Perolas Negras
15 Jul
Perolas Negras
0 : 0
Marica
04 Jul
Marica
2 : 0
Perolas Negras
27 Jun
Cabofriense
1 : 2
Perolas Negras
23 Jun
Perolas Negras
5 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
Page 1 of 6

Serrano FC

(Away)
03 Oct
Artsul
3 : 4
Serrano FC
26 Sept
Serrano FC
1 : 1
Campo Grande
19 Sept
Audax RJ
0 : 1
Serrano FC
12 Sept
Serrano FC
0 : 0
Goytacaz
05 Sept
Niteroiense
2 : 0
Serrano FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Americano 11 8 1 2 18:9 25
2 Marica 11 7 3 1 11:7 24
3 Resende 11 5 4 2 16:9 19
4 America RJ 11 5 1 5 18:14 16
5 Perolas Negras 11 5 1 5 11:15 16
6 Sao Goncalo 11 4 2 5 11:10 14
7 Bonsucesso 11 4 2 5 10:11 14
8 Olaria 11 3 4 4 11:11 13
9 Cabofriense 11 3 3 5 12:13 12
10 CEAC/Araruama 11 3 2 6 11:15 11
11 Serrano FC 11 2 5 4 10:18 11
12 Audax RJ 11 3 0 8 10:17 9
Promotion - Carioca 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B1 (Main)