Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pesnica vs Mons Claudius

Slovenia Slovenia

3. SNL - North 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pesnica play Mons Claudius in the 3. SNL - North 2017/2018. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pesnica averaged 1.06 goals scored and 2.45 conceded. Mons Claudius averaged 1.03 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. In past meetings, Pesnica won 3, Mons Claudius won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Sep 22, 2018 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 4.00 for Pesnica and 1.88 for Mons Claudius. This points to a Pesnica double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Pesnica
30%
Draws
31%
Mons Claudius
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pesnica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Pesnica picked up more points recently compared to Mons Claudius.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (4.00 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Pesnica Clean Sheet 10%
Mons Claudius Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pesnica Mons Claudius
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 5 11
Losses 19 14
Goals Scored 1.06 1.03
Goals Conceded 2.45 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.75 8.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 22, 2018 3. SNL - North
Pesnica vs Mons Claudius
0:0
May 12, 2018 3. SNL - North
Pesnica vs Mons Claudius
2:1
Oct 28, 2017 3. SNL - North
Mons Claudius vs Pesnica
1:1
May 15, 2010 3. SNL - East
Pesnica vs Mons Claudius
6:2
Oct 17, 2009 3. SNL - East
Mons Claudius vs Pesnica
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pesnica 37 / 100
Mons Claudius 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pesnica Mons Claudius

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Pesnica or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pesnica attacking → ← attacking Mons Claudius

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pesnica scored in 52% of their last 31 games.

Mons Claudius let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Pesnica went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Mons Claudius lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 26
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
2.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 8.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Dravograd26187166:1861
2Sampion Celje26178160:1959
3Dravinja26137649:2746
4Pesnica26136739:3045
5Bistrica26118740:3241
6Zrece261241058:3740
7SD Videm261051138:4335
8Pohorje261051141:5035
9Mons Claudius26710932:4331
10Dobrovce26841436:4528
11Sentjur26731634:6524
12Korotan Prevalje26721735:4323
13Lenart26721730:6423
14Smarje26611926:6819