Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Petrolina vs Flamengo Arcoverde

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano 2024 Estádio Paulo Coelho
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Petrolina play Flamengo Arcoverde in the Pernambucano 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Petrolina averaged 0.66 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. Flamengo Arcoverde averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Petrolina won 1, Flamengo Arcoverde won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 28, 2024 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.97 for Petrolina and 1.00 for Flamengo Arcoverde. This points to a Flamengo Arcoverde double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Petrolina
22%
Draws
53%
Flamengo Arcoverde
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Flamengo Arcoverde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Petrolina picked up more points recently compared to Flamengo Arcoverde.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Petrolina Clean Sheet 23%
Flamengo Arcoverde Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Petrolina Flamengo Arcoverde
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 4 15
Draws 10 1
Losses 18 14
Goals Scored 0.66 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2024 Pernambucano
Petrolina vs Flamengo Arcoverde
1:1
Sep 25, 2022 Pernambucano 2
Flamengo Arcoverde vs Petrolina
1:0
Feb 27, 2019 Pernambucano
Petrolina vs Flamengo Arcoverde
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Petrolina Compare

Top Goalscorer Emerson Galego
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Flamengo Arcoverde Compare

Top Goalscorer Prado Marinho G. E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Petrolina 27 / 100
Flamengo Arcoverde 51 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Petrolina Flamengo Arcoverde

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Flamengo Arcoverde Win (2)
Secondary Pick Flamengo Arcoverde & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Petrolina attacking → ← attacking Flamengo Arcoverde

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Petrolina scored in 44% of their last 32 games.

Flamengo Arcoverde let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.67 goals.

Petrolina went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Flamengo Arcoverde lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 46
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sport Recife970216:721
2Retro962116:320
3Nautico962112:420
4Santa Cruz961216:719
5Central SC933314:1512
6Afogados da Ingazeira931513:2110
7Maguary924312:1010
8Petrolina92439:1010
9CA Porto91089:233
10Flamengo Arcoverde90188:251