Sport Picks

Stadium Background

PFC Sochi vs Ulyanovsk

Russia Russia

FNL Fisht Olympic Stadium, Sochi
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Sub
Kuzmin M. In: Kaynov M.
Out: Kuzmin M.
35'
Nikitin A.
46'
Sub
Shagiakhmetov R. In: Novikov D.
Out: Shagiakhmetov R.

AI Match Summary

PFC Sochi in this FNL matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored PFC Sochi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
PFC Sochi
30%
Draws
37%
Ulyanovsk
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ulyanovsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to PFC Sochi lately — more wins on the board than Ulyanovsk.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
PFC Sochi Clean Sheet 20%
Ulyanovsk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PFC Sochi Ulyanovsk
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 4 8
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.57 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 FNL
PFC Sochi vs Ulyanovsk
1:0
Oct 16, 2024 Russian Cup
PFC Sochi vs Ulyanovsk
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PFC Sochi Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaynov M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Ulyanovsk Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PFC Sochi 36 / 100
Ulyanovsk 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PFC Sochi Ulyanovsk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ulyanovsk Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: PFC Sochi scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Ulyanovsk has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Recent resilience: PFC Sochi stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

PFC Sochi VS Ulyanovsk
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PFC Sochi

(Home)
18 Sept
PFC Sochi
1 : 1
SKA Khabarovsk
14 Sept
Veles Moscow
1 : 2
PFC Sochi
09 Sept
Dynamo Petersburg
2 : 0
PFC Sochi
05 Sept
PFC Sochi
0 : 1
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
30 Aug
PFC Sochi
2 : 1
Chelyabinsk
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Ulyanovsk

(Away)
18 Sept
Ulyanovsk
0 : 1
S. Kostroma
13 Sept
Ufa
2 : 2
Ulyanovsk
09 Sept
FC Volgar-Astrakhan
0 : 1
Ulyanovsk
05 Sept
Ulyanovsk
3 : 0
Arsenal Tula
30 Aug
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
2 : 2
Ulyanovsk
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 36:14 31
2 S. Kostroma 11 7 3 1 15:8 24
3 PFC Sochi 12 7 2 3 21:14 23
4 Veles Moscow 12 7 2 3 16:14 23
5 Ural 11 6 4 1 18:5 22
6 Torpedo Moscow 11 6 2 3 21:9 20
7 R. Volgograd 12 5 2 5 20:14 17
8 Ufa 11 4 5 2 16:13 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 11 3 6 2 15:13 15
10 Yenisey 11 3 4 4 14:19 13
11 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 12:22 13
12 Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 7:15 12
13 Chelyabinsk 11 3 2 6 12:18 11
14 Ulyanovsk 11 3 2 6 14:17 11
15 Leningradets 11 2 4 5 9:20 10
16 Kamaz 12 2 3 7 11:19 9
17 Tekstilshtik 12 1 4 7 8:19 7
18 SKA Khabarovsk 11 1 2 8 11:23 5
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)