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Philippines vs Maldives

Asia Asia

Asian Cup New Clark City Athletics Stadium, Capas
Philippines Logo

Philippines

4 - 1
FT
Maldives Logo

Maldives

Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Tabinas J.
Assist: Tabinas P.
19' Event
Kristensen B.
Assist: Schneider R.
46'
Sub
Naim M. In: Naiz H.
Out: Naim M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. The second leg ended 4-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Philippines
15%
Draws
34%
Maldives
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Philippines

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Philippines come out ahead of Maldives on wins alone.
  • Model gives Philippines a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Philippines have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Philippines, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Philippines have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Philippines Clean Sheet 68%
Maldives Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Philippines Maldives
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 6 4
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.57 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2025 Asian Cup
Maldives vs Philippines
0:2
Mar 25, 2025 Asian Cup
Philippines vs Maldives
4:1
Jun 15, 2021 World Championship
Philippines vs Maldives
1:1
Nov 14, 2019 World Championship
Maldives vs Philippines
1:2
Sep 3, 2015 Friendly International
Philippines vs Maldives
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Philippines Compare

Top Goalscorer Tabinas J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kristensen B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Maldives Compare

Top Goalscorer Fasir A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Philippines 95 / 100
Maldives 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Philippines Maldives

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Philippines Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Philippines scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Maldives has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Away concern: Maldives has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Philippines VS Maldives
2.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
75% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Philippines

(Home)
08 Aug
Malaysia
1 : 0
Philippines
04 Aug
Philippines
0 : 1
Thailand
01 Aug
Laos
1 : 4
Philippines
28 Jul
Philippines
1 : 4
Myanmar
09 Jun
Philippines
5 : 1
Myanmar
Page 1 of 6

Maldives

(Away)
07 Jun
Maldives
1 : 1
Bangladesh U23
04 Jun
Maldives
0 : 3
Pakistan
01 Jun
Maldives
0 : 1
Afghanistan
31 Mar
Maldives
2 : 1
Timor-Leste
18 Nov
Maldives
0 : 2
Philippines
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tajikistan 6 4 2 0 14:3 14
2 Philippines 6 4 2 0 16:6 14
3 Maldives 6 1 0 5 3:13 3
4 Timor-Leste 6 1 0 5 4:15 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Yemen 6 4 2 0 20:1 14
2 Lebanon 6 4 1 1 14:2 13
3 Bhutan 6 1 1 4 4:16 4
4 Brunei 6 1 0 5 3:22 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Singapore 6 4 2 0 8:4 14
2 Hong Kong 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
3 Bangladesh 6 1 2 3 6:8 5
4 India 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thailand 6 5 0 1 16:5 15
2 Turkmenistan 6 4 0 2 11:7 12
3 Sri Lanka 6 3 0 3 8:9 9
4 Chinese Taipei 6 0 0 6 5:19 0
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Syria 6 6 0 0 21:2 18
2 Myanmar 6 4 0 2 8:11 12
3 Afghanistan 6 0 2 4 4:11 2
4 Pakistan 6 0 2 4 2:11 2
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam 6 6 0 0 17:2 18
2 Malaysia 6 3 0 3 10:10 9
3 Laos 6 2 0 4 4:16 6
4 Nepal 6 1 0 5 5:8 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)