Sport Picks
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay
USA
USL Championship Wild Horse Pass Stadium, Chandler, AZ 
Match Events
17'
17'
Nadje C.
30'
30'
Badji D.
Assist: Moursou J.
42'
42'
Saidi A.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Phoenix Rising and Monterey Bay finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Phoenix Rising.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Monterey Bay
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Monterey Bay haven't matched Phoenix Rising's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Phoenix Rising Clean Sheet 20%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Phoenix Rising | Monterey Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 6 |
| Draws | 6 | 6 |
| Losses | 13 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.24 | 1.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.55 | 1.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising
1:1
Jul 19, 2026 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay
3:2
May 18, 2025 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay
2:0
Mar 30, 2025 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising
3:1
Oct 5, 2024 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Phoenix Rising Compare
Top Goalscorer Badji D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Arase K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Monterey Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Saidi A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Phoenix Rising 32 / 100
Monterey Bay 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Phoenix Rising Monterey Bay
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Monterey Bay Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Monterey Bay has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Phoenix Rising scored in 69% of their last 29 games.
Solid form: Phoenix Rising remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Phoenix Rising VS Monterey Bay
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Phoenix Rising
(Home) 04 Oct
New Mexico
2 : 1 Phoenix Rising
27 Sept
Oakland Roots
3 : 0 Phoenix Rising
20 Sept
Phoenix Rising
1 : 3 El Paso Locomotive
13 Sept
Phoenix Rising
2 : 1 FC Tulsa
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Phoenix Rising
1 : 3 El Paso Locomotive
13 Sept
Phoenix Rising
2 : 1 FC Tulsa
30 Aug
Phoenix Rising
2 : 1 Indy Eleven
20 Aug
Phoenix Rising
3 : 1 Colorado Springs
26 Jul
Phoenix Rising
0 : 0 Hartford Athletic
Page 1 of 3
Monterey Bay
(Away) 04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
22 Aug
Rhode Island
3 : 1 Monterey Bay
16 Aug
Oakland Roots
1 : 1 Monterey Bay
06 Aug
El Paso Locomotive
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46:25 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33:20 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39:29 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38:45 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33:33 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32:44 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46:35 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:32 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37:25 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49:33 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32:25 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40:37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36:42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29:29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35:38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:40 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29:47 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
