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Phonix Lubeck vs Paderborn

Germany Germany

DFB Pokal Stadion Lohmühle, Lubeck
Phonix Lubeck Logo

Phonix Lubeck

2 - 4
FT
Paderborn Logo

Paderborn

Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
ter Horst J.
Assist: Hansen M.
36'
Obermair R.
41' Event
Castaneda S.
Assist: Ulrich L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-4. This leg finished 2-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Phonix Lubeck
15%
Draws
27%
Paderborn
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Phonix Lubeck

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paderborn lately — more wins on the board than Phonix Lubeck.
  • Model gives Phonix Lubeck a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Paderborn arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Paderborn, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Phonix Lubeck Clean Sheet 20%
Paderborn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Phonix Lubeck Paderborn
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 5 9
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 2.08 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 DFB Pokal
Phonix Lubeck vs Paderborn
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Phonix Lubeck Compare

Top Goalscorer Kretzer M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Paderborn Compare

Top Goalscorer ter Horst J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castaneda S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Phonix Lubeck 85 / 100
Paderborn 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Phonix Lubeck Paderborn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Phonix Lubeck Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Phonix Lubeck scored in 88% of their last 26 games.

Games between these two average 6.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Phonix Lubeck stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Paderborn conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Phonix Lubeck VS Paderborn
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Phonix Lubeck

(Home)
19 Sept
Weiche Flensburg 08
1 : 2
Phonix Lubeck
16 Sept
Phonix Lubeck
9 : 0
Todesfelde
12 Sept
Eimsbutteler
1 : 3
Phonix Lubeck
06 Sept
Werder Bremen II
0 : 2
Phonix Lubeck
02 Sept
Hannoverscher SC
0 : 3
Phonix Lubeck
Page 1 of 6

Paderborn

(Away)
20 Sept
Paderborn
3 : 1
Hoffenheim
12 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 0
Paderborn
05 Sept
Paderborn
0 : 1
Freiburg
29 Aug
Mainz
0 : 0
Paderborn
23 Aug
Phonix Lubeck
2 : 4
Paderborn
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3
Arminia Bielefeld 2
Energie Cottbus 0
Augsburg 2
Jeddeloh 5
Heidenheim 2
Saarbrucken 1
Hertha Berlin 2
RW Essen 2
St. Pauli 0
Eintracht Trier 0
RB Leipzig 6
Wurzburger Kickers 1
1. FC Koln 2
Braunschweig 2
Union Berlin 4
Westfalia Rhynern 0
Dresden 6
Hallescher 2
Schalke 5
HEBC Hamburg 0
Dortmund 5
Luneburger Hansa 0
Werder Bremen 3
Greuther Furth 1
Bochum 2
Krieschow 0
Mainz 9
Verl 0
Hamburger 3
SC St.Tonis 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 11
Schott Mainz 0
B. Monchengladbach 5
Preussen Munster 1
Karlsruher 2
Munich 1860 0
Holstein Kiel 2
Aue 0
Hoffenheim 4
Wehen 0
Bayer Leverkusen 4
FC Viktoria Koln 1
Nurnberg 2
Hemelingen 1
Hannover 9
Mannheim 0
Kaiserslautern 1
Phonix Lubeck 2
Paderborn 4
Hansa Rostock 0
VfB Stuttgart 4
Dusseldorf 1
Freiburg 5
Altglienicke 3
Wolfsburg 4
Duisburg 1
Elversberg 3
Jena 1
Darmstadt 2
VfL Osnabruck 1
Bayern Munich 4
Bahlinger 0
Magdeburg 4
1/16-finals
Sonnenhof Grossaspach -
Augsburg -
Jeddeloh -
Hertha Berlin -
RW Essen -
RB Leipzig -
1. FC Koln -
Union Berlin -
Dresden -
Schalke -
Dortmund -
Werder Bremen -
Bochum -
Mainz -
Hamburger -
Eintracht Frankfurt -
B. Monchengladbach -
Karlsruher -
Holstein Kiel -
Hoffenheim -
Bayer Leverkusen -
Nurnberg -
Hannover -
Kaiserslautern -
Paderborn -
VfB Stuttgart -
Freiburg -
Wolfsburg -
Elversberg -
Darmstadt -
Bayern Munich -
Magdeburg -
1/8-finals
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Quarter-finals
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Semi-finals
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Final
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