Sport Picks

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Piaui vs Itabaiana

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Leilson
20'
Dione
35'
Lucas Bessa

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Piaui
15%
Draws
37%
Itabaiana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Piaui

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Piaui have won more games recently than Itabaiana.
  • Piaui are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Piaui have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 40.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Piaui Clean Sheet 68%
Itabaiana Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Piaui Itabaiana
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 15 7
Draws 5 9
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.1 0.82
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 0.74 0.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Piaui vs Itabaiana
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Piaui Compare

Top Goalscorer Kauan Maranhao
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.37

Itabaiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Leilson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Piaui 59 / 100
Itabaiana 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Piaui Itabaiana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Piaui Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Piaui's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Itabaiana's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Piaui went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Piaui VS Itabaiana
0.86 Goals Scored 0.88
0.71 Goals Conceded 0.63
43% Over 1.5 38%
14% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Piaui

(Home)
27 Jun
Piaui
1 : 0
Maguary
21 Jun
Maguary
2 : 0
Piaui
13 Jun
Piaui
2 : 1
Tirol
01 Jun
Atletico Cearense
0 : 1
Piaui
23 May
Piaui
0 : 1
Fluminense-PI
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Itabaiana

(Away)
16 Aug
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1 : 0
Itabaiana
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
SER Caxias do Sul
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
13 Jul
Itabaiana
1 : 0
Brusque
07 Jul
Amazonas
0 : 2
Itabaiana
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