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Pineto vs Spal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B 2024/2025 Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani, Pineto
Pineto Logo

Pineto

3 - 2
FT
Spal Logo

Spal

Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Germinario G.
18' Event
Bruzzaniti G.
31'
Sub
Bassoli A. In: Rao E.
Out: Bassoli A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group B 2024/2025 game between Pineto and Spal finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pineto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Pineto
35%
Draws
40%
Spal
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Spal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Pineto carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Spal are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Pineto Clean Sheet 17%
Spal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pineto Spal
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 7
Draws 9 10
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 0.97 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Pineto vs Spal
3:2
Nov 10, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Spal vs Pineto
2:1
Apr 21, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Spal vs Pineto
2:0
Dec 16, 2023 Serie C - Group B
Pineto vs Spal
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pineto Compare

Top Goalscorer Germinario G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bruzzaniti G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Spal Compare

Top Goalscorer Karlsson O.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pineto 15 / 100
Spal 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pineto Spal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spal has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Pineto remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Pineto scored in 58% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Pineto VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pineto

(Home)
04 Oct
Guidonia 1937
1 : 0
Pineto
26 Sept
Pineto
0 : 4
Grosseto
20 Sept
Campobasso
2 : 2
Pineto
16 Sept
Pineto
1 : 1
Forli FC
12 Sept
Pineto
2 : 1
Sambenedettese
Page 1 of 7

Spal

(Away)
17 May
Spal
2 : 0
AC Milan U23
10 May
AC Milan U23
1 : 0
Spal
27 Apr
Spal
3 : 0
Gubbio
23 Apr
Vis Pesaro
1 : 1
Spal
12 Apr
Spal
1 : 1
US Pontedera
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Entella 38 23 14 1 61:24 83
2 Ternana 38 22 10 6 64:23 74
3 Sassari Torres 38 19 11 8 55:36 68
4 Pescara 38 19 10 9 55:35 67
5 Arezzo 38 19 7 12 48:37 64
6 Vis Pesaro 38 15 13 10 44:34 58
7 Pineto 38 15 12 11 46:49 57
8 Pianese 38 15 8 15 48:48 53
9 Rimini 38 13 14 11 45:35 51
10 US Pontedera 38 13 9 16 54:54 48
11 Gubbio 38 13 9 16 32:42 48
12 Perugia 38 11 14 13 43:41 47
13 Carpi 38 11 11 16 41:48 44
14 Campobasso 38 11 10 17 36:46 43
15 Ascoli 38 9 13 16 37:46 40
16 Lucchese 38 10 15 13 47:64 39
17 Spal 38 9 11 18 41:61 35
18 AC Milan U23 38 7 13 18 36:57 34
19 Sestri Levante 38 6 13 19 34:54 31
20 Legnago Salus 38 6 11 21 30:63 29
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Out)