Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Piracicaba vs Comercial

Brazil Brazil

Copa Paulista 2025 Estadio Municipal Barao de Serra Negra, Piracicaba
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Gustavo L.
48'
Carlos Manuel
62'
Sub
David Ribeiro In: Erik Bessa
Out: David Ribeiro

AI Match Summary

Piracicaba in this Copa Paulista 2025 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Piracicaba
35%
Draws
50%
Comercial
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Comercial

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Comercial lately — more wins on the board than Piracicaba.
  • Comercial are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Comercial arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Piracicaba, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 14%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Piracicaba Clean Sheet 26%
Comercial Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Piracicaba Comercial
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 10 12
Draws 13 5
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1.11
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.73 0.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Copa Paulista
Piracicaba vs Comercial
0:2
Sep 27, 2025 Copa Paulista
Piracicaba vs Comercial
1:0
Sep 19, 2025 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Piracicaba
1:1
Mar 3, 2024 Paulista A2
Comercial vs Piracicaba
1:4
Mar 1, 2023 Paulista A2
Piracicaba vs Comercial
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Piracicaba Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.56
Avg xA / game 0.36

Comercial Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Piracicaba 25 / 100
Comercial 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Piracicaba Comercial

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Comercial Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Piracicaba found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Comercial let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Piracicaba remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Piracicaba VS Comercial
1.13 Goals Scored 0.83
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.33
75% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Piracicaba

(Home)
09 Aug
Noroeste
2 : 1
Piracicaba
01 Aug
Piracicaba
1 : 1
Noroeste
25 Jul
Piracicaba
0 : 2
Comercial
22 Jul
Uniao Sao Joao
0 : 0
Piracicaba
11 Jul
Piracicaba
0 : 0
Cianorte
Page 1 of 6

Comercial

(Away)
08 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1
Comercial
31 Jul
Comercial
0 : 1
Uniao Sao Joao
25 Jul
Piracicaba
0 : 2
Comercial
18 Jul
Comercial
2 : 0
Noroeste
04 Apr
Comercial
2 : 1
Tanabi
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Piracicaba 2
AEA Aracatuba 1
Portuguesa Santista 1
Osasco Sporting 2
Sao Jose EC 3
Sao Bento 2
Comercial 2
Internacional de Limeira 1
Uniao Sao Joao 3
Noroeste 1
Primavera EC 2
Paulista 1
Gremio Prudente 2
Sao Caetano 0
Monte Azul 2
Francana 3
Quarter-finals
Piracicaba 3
Osasco Sporting 0
Sao Jose EC 0
Comercial 2
Uniao Sao Joao 0
Primavera EC 6
Gremio Prudente 4
Francana 1
Semi-finals
Piracicaba 2
Comercial 1
Primavera EC 3
Gremio Prudente 2
Final
Piracicaba 2
Primavera EC 1