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Pistoiese vs Club Milano

Italy Italy

Coppa Italia Serie D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Rossi M.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Pistoiese advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

67%
Pistoiese
15%
Draws
18%
Club Milano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pistoiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Club Milano haven't matched Pistoiese's recent run of results.
  • Pistoiese are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Pistoiese have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Pistoiese, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Pistoiese Clean Sheet 68%
Club Milano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pistoiese Club Milano
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 21 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 3 16
Goals Scored 2.03 1.12
Goals Conceded 0.55 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2026 Coppa Italia Serie D
Pistoiese vs Club Milano
1:0
Jan 7, 2026 Coppa Italia Serie D
Club Milano vs Pistoiese
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pistoiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Club Milano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.4
Avg xA / game 0.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pistoiese 95 / 100
Club Milano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pistoiese Club Milano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pistoiese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Pistoiese scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Pistoiese has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Club Milano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Pistoiese VS Club Milano
2 Goals Scored 0.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pistoiese

(Home)
04 Oct
USD Casatese
0 : 3
Pistoiese
27 Sept
Pistoiese
3 : 0
Sant'Angelo
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Arconatese
13 Sept
Crema
1 : 3
Pistoiese
Page 1 of 6

Club Milano

(Away)
04 Oct
Club Milano
1 : 2
AC Leon
27 Sept
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1
Club Milano
20 Sept
Club Milano
0 : 1
Virtus Verona
16 Sept
Chievo
2 : 0
Club Milano
12 Sept
Pavonese
0 : 2
Club Milano
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Asti Calcio 2
Chisola 0
Ligorna 1
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 3
Sestri Levante 0
Tau 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
SCD Progresso 1
Pavia 2
Sant'Angelo 0
Prato 2
Montevarchi 1
Correggese 2
Imolese 1
Sondrio 1
Breno 0
Folgore Caratese 2
Club Milano 3
AC Milan U23 2
Varesina 3
Brusaporto 0
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Chievo 0
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Vigasio 2
Cjarlins Muzane 1
Brian Lignano 2
Luparense FC 0
Mestre 1
Fossombrone 0
Ancona 1
Foligno 0
Atletico Ascoli 2
Orvietana 2
Siena 0
Follonica Gavorrano 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Termoli 0
Albalonga 2
Aquila Calcio 1
Grosseto 0
Unipomezia 1
Trastevere Calcio 2
Budoni Calcio 0
Martina Calcio 3
Sarnese 1
Ferrandina 2
Francavilla 3
A.C. Savoia 2
Paganese 1
Citta di Fasano 3
Gravina 0
Nocerina 4
Gelbison 2
Sambiase 0
Reggina 1
Castrumfavara 3
Igea Virtus 1
Enna 0
Sancataldese 2
1/16-finals
Asti Calcio 3
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 0
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
Pavia 1
Prato 1
Correggese 4
Sondrio 0
Club Milano 3
Varesina 4
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Brian Lignano 0
Mestre 1
Ancona 1
Atletico Ascoli 0
Orvietana 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Albalonga 1
Unipomezia 3
Trastevere Calcio 1
Martina Calcio 1
Francavilla 2
A.C. Savoia 3
Citta di Fasano 4
Nocerina 3
Reggina 2
Castrumfavara 3
Sancataldese 2
1/8-finals
Asti Calcio 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 0
Correggese 1
Club Milano 1
Varesina 0
Este 1
Mestre 2
Ancona 2
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 0
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 3
Citta di Fasano 2
Nocerina 2
Castrumfavara 0
Quarter-finals
Pistoiese 2
Correggese 0
Club Milano 1
Mestre 0
Ancona 2
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 1
Nocerina 0
Semi-finals
Pistoiese 3
Club Milano 1
Ancona 2
Francavilla 1
Final
Pistoiese 3
Ancona 0