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Pistoiese vs Club Milano

Italy Italy

Coppa Italia Serie D
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pistoiese play Club Milano in the Coppa Italia Serie D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pistoiese averaged 1.76 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Club Milano averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Pistoiese won 2, Club Milano won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 21, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Pistoiese and 1.38 for Club Milano. This points to a Pistoiese double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Pistoiese
17%
Draws
28%
Club Milano
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Pistoiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Pistoiese picked up more points recently compared to Club Milano.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Pistoiese Clean Sheet 17%
Club Milano Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pistoiese Club Milano
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 22 13
Draws 7 4
Losses 4 13
Goals Scored 1.76 1.23
Goals Conceded 0.67 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2026 Coppa Italia Serie D
Pistoiese vs Club Milano
1:0
Jan 7, 2026 Coppa Italia Serie D
Club Milano vs Pistoiese
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pistoiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Club Milano Compare

Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pistoiese 53 / 100
Club Milano 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pistoiese Club Milano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pistoiese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Pistoiese & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.1%
2.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pistoiese attacking → ← attacking Club Milano

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pistoiese scored in 82% of their last 33 games.

Club Milano let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Pistoiese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Club Milano lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

73 Points in last 5 43
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13