Sport Picks

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Pistoiese vs Crema

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Latini A.
8' Event
Saporetti S.
25' Event
Recino G.

AI Match Summary

Pistoiese in this Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pistoiese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Pistoiese
20%
Draws
23%
Crema
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pistoiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pistoiese lately — more wins on the board than Crema.
  • Model gives Pistoiese a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Pistoiese Clean Sheet 68%
Crema Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pistoiese Crema
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 20 5
Draws 7 11
Losses 3 13
Goals Scored 1.87 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.57 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Crema vs Pistoiese
1:3
Apr 3, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Pistoiese vs Crema
4:2
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Crema vs Pistoiese
1:1
Jan 22, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Crema vs Pistoiese
0:1
Sep 18, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Pistoiese vs Crema
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pistoiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Saporetti S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bertolo F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Crema Compare

Top Goalscorer Latini A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Recino G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pistoiese 95 / 100
Crema 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pistoiese Crema

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pistoiese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pistoiese's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Crema conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Pistoiese went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pistoiese VS Crema
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pistoiese

(Home)
16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Arconatese
13 Sept
Crema
1 : 3
Pistoiese
06 Sept
Pistoiese
2 : 0
Solbiatese
22 Aug
Pistoiese
0 : 1
Siena
14 Aug
Seravezza Pozzi
0 : 0
Pistoiese
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Crema

(Away)
16 Sept
Pro Patria
2 : 0
Crema
13 Sept
Crema
1 : 3
Pistoiese
06 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Crema
08 Aug
Lumezzane
1 : 0
Crema
10 May
Crema
2 : 0
Tropical Coriano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Desenzano Calvina 34 23 8 3 60:21 77
2 Lentigione 34 22 7 5 51:23 73
3 Pistoiese 34 20 11 3 61:22 71
4 Piacenza 34 19 7 8 60:35 64
5 Pro Palazzolo 34 16 9 9 44:31 57
6 Pro Sesto 34 15 10 9 45:30 55
7 Cittadella Vis Modena 34 15 10 9 35:29 55
8 Rovato Vertovese 34 14 10 10 35:29 52
9 Sangiuliano City 34 14 8 12 41:45 47
10 SCD Progresso 34 10 9 15 38:42 39
11 Sant'Angelo 34 10 9 15 38:51 39
12 Correggese 34 9 12 13 35:36 39
13 Crema 34 9 11 14 35:47 38
14 Imolese 34 8 10 16 28:47 34
15 Sasso Marconi 34 8 7 19 33:49 31
16 Tropical Coriano 34 7 10 17 29:45 31
17 Trevigliese 34 5 8 21 31:62 23
18 Tuttocuoio 34 0 8 26 18:73 8
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 (Play Out)