Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Platense vs Marathon

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Excelsior, Puerto Cortes
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Sub
Aguilar A. In: Urbina E.
Out: Aguilar A.
25'
Sub
Jasid Arzu Marin Y. In: Flores R.
Out: Jasid Arzu Marin Y.
28' Event
Puerto E.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Platense and Marathon finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Platense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Platense
35%
Draws
39%
Marathon
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Marathon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Marathon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Marathon are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Platense Clean Sheet 21%
Marathon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Platense Marathon
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 7 14
Draws 11 11
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.37 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.87 1.16
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Marathon
1:1
Apr 5, 2026 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Marathon
3:1
Feb 13, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Platense
2:2
Dec 21, 2025 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Marathon
2:2
Dec 19, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Platense
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Platense Compare

Top Goalscorer Puerto E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Welcome G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.67
Avg xA / game 0.43

Marathon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.05
Avg xA / game 0.64

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Platense 12 / 100
Marathon 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Platense Marathon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Platense scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Marathon has conceded goals in 56% of their last 34 outings.

Platense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Platense VS Marathon
0.86 Goals Scored 0.75
1.57 Goals Conceded 0.88
71% Over 1.5 50%
43% Over 2.5 13%
29% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Platense

(Home)
08 Aug
Platense
1 : 1
Marathon
01 Aug
Platense
0 : 3
Real Espana
01 May
Olimpia
4 : 0
Platense
26 Apr
Platense
1 : 0
Olancho
22 Apr
Real Espana
2 : 0
Platense
Page 1 of 6

Marathon

(Away)
08 Aug
Platense
1 : 1
Marathon
04 Aug
Marathon
1 : 0
Atletico Independiente
31 Jul
Herediano
0 : 0
Marathon
24 May
Motagua
1 : 0
Marathon
22 May
Marathon
1 : 1
Motagua
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 20 11 7 2 37:25 40
2 Motagua 20 11 6 3 36:17 39
3 Olimpia 20 11 5 4 35:17 38
4 Olancho 20 8 8 4 28:16 32
5 Marathon 20 7 6 7 23:19 27
6 Genesis FC 20 6 5 9 20:28 23
7 CD Choloma 20 6 5 9 23:32 23
8 Platense 20 5 6 9 26:29 21
9 Lobos UPNFM 20 5 6 9 23:30 21
10 Juticalpa 20 4 6 10 18:41 18
11 Victoria 20 4 4 12 25:40 16
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Triangulares)