Sport Picks

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Poggibonsi vs Scandicci

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

81' Event
Giustarini M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 game between Poggibonsi and Scandicci finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Poggibonsi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Poggibonsi
30%
Draws
31%
Scandicci
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Poggibonsi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Scandicci carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Poggibonsi are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Poggibonsi Clean Sheet 17%
Scandicci Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Poggibonsi Scandicci
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 10
Draws 8 13
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 0.83 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.27 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Scandicci
1:0
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Scandicci vs Poggibonsi
1:1
Feb 6, 2022 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Scandicci
2:0
Sep 26, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Scandicci vs Poggibonsi
2:1
Feb 19, 2017 Serie D - Group D
Scandicci vs Poggibonsi
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Poggibonsi Compare

Top Goalscorer Giustarini M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Scandicci Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poggibonsi 39 / 100
Scandicci 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Poggibonsi Scandicci

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Poggibonsi found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Scandicci has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Poggibonsi stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Poggibonsi VS Scandicci
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Poggibonsi

(Home)
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
03 May
Poggibonsi
1 : 0
Scandicci
26 Apr
Cannara
3 : 2
Poggibonsi
19 Apr
Poggibonsi
0 : 0
Tau
12 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
1 : 1
Poggibonsi
Page 1 of 6

Scandicci

(Away)
05 Aug
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 2
Scandicci
31 Jul
Siena
2 : 0
Scandicci
03 May
Poggibonsi
1 : 0
Scandicci
26 Apr
Scandicci
1 : 3
Follonica Gavorrano
19 Apr
Cannara
1 : 1
Scandicci
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)