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Pogon Szczecin II vs Notec Czarnkow

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pogon Szczecin II play Notec Czarnkow in the III Liga - Group II 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pogon Szczecin II averaged 2.24 goals scored and 2 conceded. Notec Czarnkow averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. In past meetings, Pogon Szczecin II won 3, Notec Czarnkow won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 7, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.25 for Pogon Szczecin II and 1.25 for Notec Czarnkow. This points to a Notec Czarnkow double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Pogon Szczecin II
15%
Draws
47%
Notec Czarnkow
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Notec Czarnkow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Pogon Szczecin II picked up more points recently compared to Notec Czarnkow.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.25 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 74%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 89%
Over 2.5 Goals 74%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%
Pogon Szczecin II Clean Sheet 19%
Notec Czarnkow Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 80%
Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pogon Szczecin II Notec Czarnkow
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 13
Draws 4 5
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 2.24 1.61
Goals Conceded 2 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 3.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 III Liga - Group II
Pogon Szczecin II vs Notec Czarnkow
1:2
Aug 23, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Notec Czarnkow vs Pogon Szczecin II
0:2
Mar 21, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Pogon Szczecin II vs Notec Czarnkow
2:1
Aug 24, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Notec Czarnkow vs Pogon Szczecin II
3:2
May 11, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Pogon Szczecin II vs Notec Czarnkow
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pogon Szczecin II Compare

Top Goalscorer Lisowski W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.6
Avg xA / game 1.69

Notec Czarnkow Compare

Top Goalscorer Drewniak S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kaczmarek A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pogon Szczecin II 38 / 100
Notec Czarnkow 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pogon Szczecin II Notec Czarnkow

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Notec Czarnkow or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.8%
1.47
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pogon Szczecin II attacking → ← attacking Notec Czarnkow

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pogon Szczecin II scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Notec Czarnkow let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Pogon Szczecin II went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Notec Czarnkow lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 44
3.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Zawisza34255473:2380
2Luzino34244679:3976
3Polonia Sroda Wielkopol34206867:4366
4Lipno Steszew341561347:5451
5Notec Czarnkow341471349:4649
6Lech Poznan II341471367:5449
7Elana Torun341471349:5549
8Swinoujscie341471348:5249
9Wda Swiecie341461444:6648
10Unia Swarzedz341381347:4147
11Kluczevia Stargard341371454:4346
12Blekitni Stargard341291356:5145
13Victoria Wrzesnia341331841:4642
14Pogon Szczecin II341251775:6641
15Nowe Skalmierzyce341091535:4639
16Cartusia Kartuzy341151838:5138
17Tluchowo34871937:6631
18Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal34362520:8415