Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pogradeci vs Besa Kavaje

Albania Albania

Abissnet Superiore 2025/2026 Elbasan Arena, Elbasani
Mon, May 11, 2026
1 - 0
03:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Danladi S.
46'
Sub
Danaj R. In: Gjinaj N.
Out: Danaj R.
46'
Sub
Migone R. In: Begaj X.
Out: Migone R.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Pogradeci advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Pogradeci
30%
Draws
39%
Besa Kavaje
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Besa Kavaje

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Besa Kavaje haven't matched Pogradeci's recent run of results.
  • Besa Kavaje are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Pogradeci have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Pogradeci, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Pogradeci Clean Sheet 18%
Besa Kavaje Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pogradeci Besa Kavaje
Matches Played 34 32
Wins 19 14
Draws 8 6
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.76 1.59
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Club Friendly
Pogradeci vs Besa Kavaje
1:1
May 11, 2026 Abissnet Superiore
Pogradeci vs Besa Kavaje
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Besa Kavaje vs Pogradeci
2:3
Jan 17, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Besa Kavaje
0:0
Oct 19, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Besa Kavaje vs Pogradeci
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pogradeci Compare

Top Goalscorer Souza de Oliveira O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Besa Kavaje Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pogradeci 23 / 100
Besa Kavaje 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pogradeci Besa Kavaje

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Besa Kavaje Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pogradeci's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Besa Kavaje has conceded goals in 72% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Pogradeci has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Pogradeci VS Besa Kavaje
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pogradeci

(Home)
20 Sept
Pogradeci
0 : 0
Flamurtari
16 Sept
Kukesi
0 : 3
Pogradeci
12 Sept
Pogradeci
2 : 1
Kastrioti
05 Sept
Iliria Kruja
0 : 0
Pogradeci
12 Aug
Pogradeci
0 : 1
Skenderbeu Korca
Page 1 of 7

Besa Kavaje

(Away)
20 Sept
Beselidhja Lezha
2 : 1
Besa Kavaje
16 Sept
Besa Kavaje
5 : 0
KF Oriku
12 Sept
Sopoti Librazhd
0 : 4
Besa Kavaje
06 Sept
Besa Kavaje
3 : 3
Flamurtari
12 Aug
Kukesi
1 : 4
Besa Kavaje
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Teuta -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Pogradeci 3
Kastrioti 0
Iliria Kruja 0
Besa Kavaje 2
Semi-finals
Teuta -
TBD -
Pogradeci 1
Besa Kavaje 0
Final
Teuta 1
Pogradeci 0