Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pogradeci vs Iliria Kruja

Albania Albania

Kategoria e Parë
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pogradeci play Iliria Kruja in the Kategoria e Parë. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pogradeci averaged 2 goals scored and 0.94 conceded. Iliria Kruja averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Pogradeci won 2, Iliria Kruja won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on Mar 18, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Pogradeci and 1.00 for Iliria Kruja. This points to a Pogradeci double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Pogradeci
35%
Draws
22%
Iliria Kruja
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pogradeci

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Pogradeci picked up more points recently compared to Iliria Kruja.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Pogradeci Clean Sheet 23%
Iliria Kruja Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pogradeci Iliria Kruja
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 21 9
Draws 6 11
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 2 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Iliria Kruja
3:0
Nov 29, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Iliria Kruja
0:0
Aug 30, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Iliria Kruja vs Pogradeci
0:0
Dec 14, 2019 Kategoria e Parë
Iliria Kruja vs Pogradeci
0:0
Sep 21, 2019 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Iliria Kruja
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pogradeci Compare

Top Goalscorer Preknicaj K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ogunleye K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Iliria Kruja Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pogradeci 43 / 100
Iliria Kruja 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pogradeci Iliria Kruja

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Pogradeci or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pogradeci attacking → ← attacking Iliria Kruja

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pogradeci scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

Iliria Kruja let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Pogradeci went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Iliria Kruja lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

69 Points in last 5 38
2.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Laci33247260:2379
2Skenderbeu Korca33245457:2577
3Pogradeci33208563:3168
4Iliria Kruja3311121032:3345
5Besa Kavaje331091441:4339
6Kastrioti331161644:5739
7Burreli339101427:4537
8Korabi Peshkopi338121331:3936
9AF Luftetari337131337:4334
10Kukesi33871831:5031
11Apolonia Fier336101731:4428
12Lushnja335111726:4726