Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pogradeci vs Kastrioti

Albania Albania

Abissnet Superiore 2025/2026 Gjorgji Kycyku Stadium, Pogradec
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Greca B.
41'
Kacbufi A.
42'
Danladi S.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Pogradeci advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Pogradeci
20%
Draws
29%
Kastrioti
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pogradeci

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Kastrioti haven't matched Pogradeci's recent run of results.
  • Pogradeci are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Pogradeci have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Pogradeci, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Pogradeci have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Pogradeci Clean Sheet 68%
Kastrioti Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pogradeci Kastrioti
Matches Played 34 28
Wins 18 10
Draws 8 3
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.82 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Kastrioti
2:1
May 7, 2026 Abissnet Superiore
Pogradeci vs Kastrioti
3:0
Apr 4, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Kastrioti
5:1
Jan 24, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Kastrioti vs Pogradeci
2:4
Oct 25, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Kastrioti
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pogradeci Compare

Top Goalscorer Pius F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Greca B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Kastrioti Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pogradeci 59 / 100
Kastrioti 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pogradeci Kastrioti

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pogradeci Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kastrioti has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Pogradeci's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Solid form: Pogradeci remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pogradeci VS Kastrioti
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pogradeci

(Home)
12 Sept
Pogradeci
2 : 1
Kastrioti
05 Sept
Iliria Kruja
0 : 0
Pogradeci
12 Aug
Pogradeci
0 : 1
Skenderbeu Korca
08 Aug
Pogradeci
4 : 2
Pelister
31 Jul
Pogradeci
0 : 2
Partizani
Page 1 of 7

Kastrioti

(Away)
12 Sept
Pogradeci
2 : 1
Kastrioti
06 Sept
Burreli
2 : 2
Kastrioti
07 May
Pogradeci
3 : 0
Kastrioti
03 May
Lushnja
1 : 4
Kastrioti
25 Apr
Kastrioti
1 : 2
AF Luftetari
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Teuta -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Pogradeci 3
Kastrioti 0
Iliria Kruja 0
Besa Kavaje 2
Semi-finals
Teuta -
TBD -
Pogradeci 1
Besa Kavaje 0
Final
Teuta 1
Pogradeci 0