Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Poland vs Albania

World World

World Championship 2026 PGE Narodowy, Warsaw
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Sub
Ajeti Ar. In: Ismajli A.
Out: Ajeti Ar.
34'
Mitaj M.
42' Event
Hoxha A.

AI Match Summary

Poland in this World Championship 2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Poland
20%
Draws
48%
Albania
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Albania

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Poland have won more games recently than Albania.
  • 48% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Poland have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Poland, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Poland have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Poland Clean Sheet 17%
Albania Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Poland Albania
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 4
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2026 World Championship
Poland vs Albania
2:1
Sep 10, 2023 Euro
Albania vs Poland
2:0
Mar 27, 2023 Euro
Poland vs Albania
1:0
Oct 12, 2021 World Championship
Albania vs Poland
0:1
Sep 2, 2021 World Championship
Poland vs Albania
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Poland Compare

Top Goalscorer Lewandowski R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zielinski P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Albania Compare

Top Goalscorer Hoxha A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poland 31 / 100
Albania 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Poland Albania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Albania Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Poland found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Albania conceded in 63% of 27 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Away concern: Albania has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Poland VS Albania
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Poland

(Home)
28 Sept
Sweden
3 : 1
Poland
25 Sept
Poland
0 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
03 Jun
Poland
2 : 2
Nigeria
31 May
Poland
0 : 2
Ukraine
31 Mar
Sweden
3 : 2
Poland
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Albania

(Away)
26 Sept
Albania
2 : 0
Belarus
06 Jun
Albania
0 : 1
Luxembourg
03 Jun
Albania
0 : 1
Israel
31 Mar
Ukraine
1 : 0
Albania
26 Mar
Poland
2 : 1
Albania
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Wales 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2
Italy 2
Northern Ireland 0
Ukraine 1
Sweden 3
Poland 2
Albania 1
Slovakia 3
Kosovo 4
Turkey 1
Romania 0
Czech Republic 3
Ireland 2
Denmark 4
North Macedonia 0
Final
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2
Italy 1
Sweden 3
Poland 2
Kosovo 0
Turkey 1
Czech Republic 3
Denmark 2