Sport Picks

World

World Championship 2026 PGE Narodowy, Warsaw

Poland

1 - 0

Lithuania

Our Tip

Match Events

55'

Utkus E.

61'

Sub

Golubickas P. In: Matulevicius G.

Out: Golubickas P.

61'

Sub

Dolznikov A. In: Cernych F.

Out: Dolznikov A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Poland in this World Championship 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Poland.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%

Poland

15%

Draws

39%

Lithuania

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Poland

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence

Poland have won more games recently than Lithuania.
Poland are the model's pick here, at 50%.
European nights carry their own weight — this World Championship 2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors Poland here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%

Poland Clean Sheet 68%

Lithuania Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Poland	Lithuania
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	14	6
Draws	7	5
Losses	9	17
Goals Scored	1.67	0.82
Goals Conceded	1.4	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 12, 2025 World Championship

Lithuania vs Poland

0:2

Mar 21, 2025 World Championship

Poland vs Lithuania

1:0

Jun 12, 2018 Friendly International

Poland vs Lithuania

4:0

Jun 6, 2016 Friendly International

Poland vs Lithuania

0:0

Jun 6, 2014 Friendly International

Poland vs Lithuania

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Poland Compare

Top Goalscorer Lewandowski R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Lithuania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poland 59 / 100

Lithuania 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Poland Lithuania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Poland Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Poland's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Lithuania has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Poland remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Poland VS Lithuania

1.75 Goals Scored 0.75

1 Goals Conceded 1.75

88% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 38%

25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Poland

(Home)

03 Jun

Poland

2 : 2

Nigeria

31 May

Poland

0 : 2

Ukraine

31 Mar

Sweden

3 : 2

Poland

26 Mar

Poland

2 : 1

Albania

17 Nov

Malta

2 : 3

Poland

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Lithuania

(Away)

09 Jun

Estonia

1 : 0

Lithuania

06 Jun

Lithuania

2 : 1

Latvia

29 Mar

Lithuania

0 : 2

Georgia

26 Mar

Moldova

0 : 2

Lithuania

17 Nov

Netherlands

4 : 0

Lithuania

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