Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Poland vs Ukraine

World World

Friendly International Tarczynski Arena, Wrocław
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Yaremchuk R.
Assist: Tsygankov V.
44' Event
Yarmolenko A.
Assist: Tsygankov V.
46'
Sub
Lewandowski R. In: Zukowski M.
Out: Lewandowski R.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between Poland and Ukraine finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ukraine.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Poland
20%
Draws
51%
Ukraine
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ukraine

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Ukraine have managed 1.41 goals a game lately — Poland are scoring more at 1.52.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Poland Clean Sheet 18%
Ukraine Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Poland Ukraine
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 12 12
Draws 6 5
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.52 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Friendly International
Poland vs Ukraine
0:2
Jun 7, 2024 Friendly International
Poland vs Ukraine
3:1
Nov 11, 2020 Friendly International
Poland vs Ukraine
2:0
Mar 31, 2020 Friendly International
Poland vs Ukraine
0:0
Jun 21, 2016 Euro
Ukraine vs Poland
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Poland Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ukraine Compare

Top Goalscorer Yaremchuk R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yarmolenko A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poland 32 / 100
Ukraine 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Poland Ukraine

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ukraine Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Poland scored in 89% of their last 27 games.

Ukraine has conceded goals in 70% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Poland went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Poland VS Ukraine
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Poland

(Home)
25 Sept
Poland
0 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
03 Jun
Poland
2 : 2
Nigeria
31 May
Poland
0 : 2
Ukraine
31 Mar
Sweden
3 : 2
Poland
26 Mar
Poland
2 : 1
Albania
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Ukraine

(Away)
25 Sept
Hungary
0 : 1
Ukraine
07 Jun
Denmark
2 : 1
Ukraine
31 May
Poland
0 : 2
Ukraine
31 Mar
Ukraine
1 : 0
Albania
26 Mar
Ukraine
1 : 3
Sweden
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