Sport Picks

Romania

Liga 2 Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

CSM Satu Mare

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Poli Iasi play CSM Satu Mare in the Liga 2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Poli Iasi averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. CSM Satu Mare averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. In past meetings, Poli Iasi won 1, CSM Satu Mare won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 21, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Poli Iasi and 1.63 for CSM Satu Mare. This points to a Poli Iasi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%

Poli Iasi

15%

Draws

32%

CSM Satu Mare

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Poli Iasi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Poli Iasi picked up more points recently compared to CSM Satu Mare.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 73%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

Poli Iasi Clean Sheet 14%

CSM Satu Mare Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 66%

Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Poli Iasi	CSM Satu Mare
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	13	10
Draws	5	4
Losses	13	16
Goals Scored	1.32	1.6
Goals Conceded	1.23	1.93
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Liga 2

Poli Iasi vs CSM Satu Mare

Possession: 54% - 56% Cards: 3 - 3

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Poli Iasi Compare

Top Goalscorer Stefanovici S.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Tiehi J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

CSM Satu Mare Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05

Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poli Iasi 51 / 100

CSM Satu Mare 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Poli Iasi CSM Satu Mare

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Poli Iasi Win (1)

Secondary Pick Poli Iasi & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.7%

2.22

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Poli Iasi attacking → ← attacking CSM Satu Mare

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Poli Iasi scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

CSM Satu Mare let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Poli Iasi went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

CSM Satu Mare lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 34

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.25

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Corvinul Hunedoara	21	16	5	0	37:13	53
2	Sepsi	21	13	5	3	34:18	44
3	Chindia Targoviste	21	12	3	6	38:20	39
4	FC Bihor	21	12	3	6	40:24	39
5	Voluntari	21	11	6	4	30:16	39
6	Steaua Bucuresti	21	12	3	6	36:27	39
7	FC ASA Tg. Mures	21	11	4	6	37:22	37
8	CSM Resita	21	10	3	8	35:29	33
9	FC Bacau	21	9	6	6	28:26	33
10	Metalul Buzau	21	10	2	9	33:26	32
11	Poli Iasi	21	9	4	8	25:22	31
12	Afumati	21	9	3	9	30:26	30
13	Concordia	21	8	3	10	29:24	27
14	Gloria Bistrita	21	7	5	9	29:29	26
15	CSM Slatina	21	7	5	9	27:28	26
16	CSC Dumbravita	21	7	4	10	25:33	25
17	Selimbar	21	5	5	11	27:32	20
18	Ceahlaul	21	5	3	13	20:43	18
19	CS Din. Bucuresti	21	3	7	11	19:35	16
20	Tunari	21	3	7	11	19:36	16
21	CSM Satu Mare	21	4	2	15	19:45	14
22	Campulung	21	2	4	15	10:53	10