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Police vs Chemal

Mauritania Mauritania

Ligue 1
Police Logo

Police

0 - 1
FT
Chemal Logo

Chemal

Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Diakite M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 game between Police and Chemal finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chemal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Police
20%
Draws
73%
Chemal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chemal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Chemal carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Chemal's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Chemal here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Police Clean Sheet 20%
Chemal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Police Chemal
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 12
Draws 11 8
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Ligue 1
Police vs Chemal
0:1
Dec 21, 2025 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Police
1:1
Mar 18, 2023 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Police
2:0
Nov 13, 2022 Ligue 1
Police vs Chemal
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Police Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Chemal Compare

Top Goalscorer Diakite M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Police 12 / 100
Chemal 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Police Chemal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chemal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Police scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Chemal let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Police went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Police VS Chemal
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Police

(Home)
25 May
Gendrim
2 : 1
Police
20 May
Police
0 : 1
Kaedi
10 May
Nouadhibou
4 : 1
Police
03 May
Police
0 : 1
Chemal
12 Apr
Nouakchott Academy
0 : 0
Police
Page 1 of 6

Chemal

(Away)
25 May
Chemal
1 : 0
Pompiers
16 May
Inter Nouakchott
3 : 5
Chemal
12 May
Chemal
3 : 4
Nouakchott King's
03 May
Police
0 : 1
Chemal
11 Apr
Chemal
1 : 1
Douane
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nouadhibou 26 17 7 2 49:15 58
2 Nzeidane 26 13 7 6 42:35 46
3 Douane 26 12 9 5 40:29 45
4 Pompiers 26 11 11 4 29:22 44
5 Nouakchott Academy 26 10 9 7 32:22 39
6 Gendrim 26 9 10 7 26:29 37
7 Chemal 26 10 6 10 34:35 36
8 Nouakchott King's 26 8 10 8 37:34 34
9 SNIM 26 7 12 7 29:28 33
10 Tevragh-Zeina 26 7 11 8 34:33 32
11 Police 26 5 11 10 28:31 26
12 Kaedi 26 5 8 13 21:37 23
13 Ksar 26 4 5 17 23:48 17
14 Inter Nouakchott 26 3 6 17 24:50 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)