Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Police vs Gicumbi

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League Kigali Pele Stadium, Kigali
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Hakizimana A.
Assist: Tuyishimire J.
25' Event
Tangara K.
Assist: Ndikumana A.
69' Event
Tuyisenge A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Gicumbi in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gicumbi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Police
15%
Draws
49%
Gicumbi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gicumbi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Gicumbi have won more games recently than Police.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Police Clean Sheet 68%
Gicumbi Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Police Gicumbi
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 12 6
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 0.81 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.65 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 7, 2026 Premier League
Police vs Gicumbi
1:2
Mar 16, 2026 Premier League
Gicumbi vs Police
1:2
Nov 22, 2025 Premier League
Police vs Gicumbi
2:1
Mar 20, 2022 Premier League
Gicumbi vs Police
1:1
Dec 4, 2021 Premier League
Police vs Gicumbi
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Tangara K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Gicumbi Compare

Top Goalscorer Hakizimana A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Police 41 / 100
Gicumbi 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Police Gicumbi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Police Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gicumbi has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Police has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Police scored in 58% of their last 31 games.

Scoring Trends

Police VS Gicumbi
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
25% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Police

(Home)
17 Sept
Mukura Victory Sports
0 : 1
Police
07 Sept
Police
1 : 2
Gicumbi
30 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Police
27 Aug
Rayon Sport
0 : 1
Police
28 May
Gasogi United
0 : 1
Police
Page 1 of 7

Gicumbi

(Away)
15 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
1 : 2
Gicumbi
12 Sept
Gicumbi
1 : 0
Amagaju
07 Sept
Police
1 : 2
Gicumbi
31 May
APR
2 : 0
Gicumbi
24 May
Gicumbi
3 : 2
Mukura Victory Sports
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 3 3 0 0 5:2 9
2 Etincelles 3 2 1 0 2:0 7
3 Amagaju 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
4 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
5 Al-Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
6 Mukura Victory Sports 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
7 Marines 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
8 Police 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
9 Musanze 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
10 Gorilla 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
11 Kiyovu 3 1 0 2 1:2 3
12 Sunrise 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
13 Rayon Sport 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
14 Al-Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
15 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
16 Kigali FC 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
17 Bugesera 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Gasogi United 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)