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Police vs Gorilla - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Police host Gorilla in the Premier League. Little to choose between these two on current form. Police have averaged 0.82 scored and 0.7 conceded recently, against Gorilla's 1.09 scored and 1.31 conceded. Past meetings favor Police slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 1, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (0.94 - 1.13) back Gorilla to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Police
15%
Draws
42%
Gorilla
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Police

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Police haven't matched Gorilla's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Police a 43% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Police Clean Sheet 20%
Gorilla Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Police Gorilla
Matches Played 33 32
Wins 9 11
Draws 13 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 0.82 1.09
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Premier League
Gorilla vs Police
1:1
Jan 3, 2026 Premier League
Police vs Gorilla
4:0
Apr 27, 2025 Premier League
Gorilla vs Police
0:0
Oct 20, 2024 Premier League
Police vs Gorilla
0:0
Mar 30, 2024 Premier League
Gorilla vs Police
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Police 40 / 100
Gorilla 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Police Gorilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Police Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Police scored in 61% of their last 33 outings.

Gorilla has conceded goals in 75% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Police stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Police VS Gorilla
0.63 Goals Scored 1.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Police

(Home)
17 Sept
Mukura Victory Sports
0 : 1
Police
07 Sept
Police
1 : 2
Gicumbi
30 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Police
27 Aug
Rayon Sport
0 : 1
Police
28 May
Gasogi United
0 : 1
Police
Page 1 of 7

Gorilla

(Away)
12 Sept
Gorilla
0 : 1
Etincelles
05 Sept
Kiyovu
0 : 1
Gorilla
31 May
Gorilla
3 : 1
Al Merreikh
26 May
Gorilla
0 : 4
Etincelles
22 May
Etincelles
1 : 6
Gorilla
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 3 3 0 0 5:2 9
2 Etincelles 3 2 1 0 2:0 7
3 Amagaju 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
4 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
5 Al Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
6 Mukura Victory Sports 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
7 Marines 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
8 Police 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
9 Musanze 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
10 Gorilla 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
11 Kiyovu 3 1 0 2 1:2 3
12 Sunrise 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
13 Rayon Sport 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
14 Al Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
15 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
16 Kigali FC 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
17 Bugesera 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Gasogi United 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)