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Police XI vs Black Lions

Botswana Botswana

Premier League 2025/2026
Police XI Logo

Police XI

1 - 0
FT
Black Lions Logo

Black Lions

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Police XI in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Police XI.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Police XI
20%
Draws
34%
Black Lions
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Police XI

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Police XI have won more games recently than Black Lions.
  • Win probability leans Police XI's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Police XI Clean Sheet 68%
Black Lions Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Police XI Black Lions
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 10 6
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 0.62 0.57
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 Premier League
Police XI vs Black Lions
1:0
Nov 15, 2025 Premier League
Black Lions vs Police XI
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Police XI 68 / 100
Black Lions 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Police XI Black Lions

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Police XI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Black Lions let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Police XI has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Black Lions registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Police XI scored in 45% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Police XI VS Black Lions
0.63 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Police XI

(Home)
19 Sept
Police XI
0 : 0
Orapa United
05 Sept
Matebele
0 : 1
Police XI
30 Aug
Police XI
2 : 0
Morupule
23 May
Morupule
2 : 0
Police XI
13 May
Orapa United
0 : 0
Police XI
Page 1 of 6

Black Lions

(Away)
23 May
Black Lions
2 : 1
Santa Green
13 May
Sua Flamingoes
2 : 1
Black Lions
06 May
Police XI
1 : 0
Black Lions
25 Apr
Black Lions
2 : 1
Calendar Stars
11 Apr
Centre Chiefs
1 : 0
Black Lions
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gaborone Utd 30 23 5 2 62:15 74
2 Jwaneng Galaxy 30 17 8 5 55:23 59
3 Sua Flamingoes 30 18 5 7 44:30 59
4 Centre Chiefs 30 16 8 6 37:18 56
5 Morupule 30 14 5 11 41:33 47
6 Orapa United 30 12 11 7 35:30 47
7 Township Rollers 30 13 6 11 33:33 45
8 Nico United 30 10 12 8 28:25 42
9 Tafic FC 30 8 11 11 27:26 35
10 Matebele 30 8 9 13 29:37 33
11 Police XI 30 7 11 12 17:29 32
12 BDF XI 30 7 9 14 30:42 30
13 Extension Gunners 30 7 8 15 26:43 29
14 Black Lions 30 7 6 17 17:38 27
15 Santa Green 30 6 4 20 23:58 22
16 Calendar Stars 30 5 6 19 19:43 21
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)